Dissecting Budget 2013: Part 2 (Key Points)

In this article, I will outline the key points highlighted in the longer version of this article. You can read the longer version of the article here.

Overall, this budget is a budget for businesses, and it is a very good budget for businesses. The budget looks holistically into the needs and wants of the businesses, and try to provide for them as far as businesses want. It also showed renewed focus and re-prioritisation by the government back into productivity innovation to restructure the Singapore economy, and to move Singapore up the value chain.

This restructuring is long overdue, though. In 2005, the government shifted gears to open up our borders, which allowed businesses to employ cheap labour, which had led Singapore into becoming a labour-intensive economy, where other social ills, such as depressed wages and inequalities have also arisen. The government had also focused on attracting high net worth individuals to invest in Singapore, so as to accumulate wealth through foreign investment into Singapore, which has driven up housing prices and others costs in Singapore. Budget 2013 represents a shift in mindset by the government to seriously move into the restructuring the economy, which the government has postponed for at least the past 8 years.

After the tightening of foreign workers last year and with the threat by businesses leaving, the government had to act to stamp the outflow. One might argue that in 2012, the government had pandered towards populist sentiments and wasn’t able to convince businesses sufficiently on how, even as the government had seemingly pandered towards populist policies, if businesses were to understand deeply, the Singapore government had never changed its course in supporting businesses. Budget 2013 was really to affirm to businesses on the Singapore government’s commitment to them.

However, some businesses might argue that they would have preferred if direct cost reduction measures in rents and transport costs be provided. However, the government had preferred to provide tax breaks, such as the 30% corporate tax rebate and 30% road tax rebate, which enable businesses to have more flexibility towards managing costs. For example, the Land Productivity Grant is also an innovative way which the government is encouraging businesses to continue to locate their businesses in Singapore, whilst moving out lower-end manufacturing needs to neighbouring countries. Instead of lowering rents which might not have the effect on retaining businesses in Singapore if rents are not low enough, the government aims to use this grant to shift Singapore up the value chain by doing away with labour-intensive industries, whilst retaining core business interests in Singapore. This is an ingenious move. In effect, the government has tied business interests to Singapore through rooting businesses here, by way of financial incentives. The other reason for using tax breaks is also because tax breaks are a financial instrument which can be adjusted more flexibly. A specific reduction in land costs or transport costs might make it more difficult to adjust the costs in the longer term.

Budget 2013: Effect on 3 Groups of Businesses

On the whole, you can see that Budget 2013 aims to do the following for businesses:

  • Increase businesses’ productivity through investments, training and education, and through increasing labour costs to reduce the reliance on cheap labour
  • Provide incentives to root core businesses in Singapore whilst assisting them to expand non-core activities into the region. This is also why Singapore has heavily invested in the Iskandar region in Malaysia and in strengthening transport links to their capital, Kuala Lumpur.
  • Reduce overall business costs through tax breaks and other financial assistance

Also, from the way that Budget 2013 is framed, you can see that there are certain industries which the budget is targeted to grow:

  • Major businesses
  • Businesses with strong capital
  • Businesses which are nimble and with expansion plans
  • Businesses which are able to boost productivity and restructure
  • SMEs of a certain size and with strong capital
  • Transportation companies
  • New industries

But this doesn’t mean that businesses which are not part of these industries will not benefit from the budget. The government is really sending a signal to encourage businesses in Singapore to find ways to restructure themselves, and as long as they are willing to come on the bandwagon to increase productivity, they will ride on the change together.

You can see that the government is also stricter with some industries, namely the manufacturing, marine, construction and process industries, where the foreign worker levies have been raised significantly. The government has done so, in part because these industries might be the most labour-intensive, and while the government anticipate a slowdown in the growth of these industries, they hope that the productivity measures and the tightening of the foreign worker curbs together, can spur the change among these industries. For example, in the construction industry, the government anticipates the demand and output to reduce, from $32 billion to $20 billion, and $33 billion to $22 billion respectively, so this is a good time for the construction industry to restructure itself. At the same time, the government isn’t saying that the industry isn’t important. By setting aside “land for the integrated construction and precast hubs to promote  to promote prefabrication in construction, and enhanc(ing) grants (of $10 million over 2 years) to encourage adoption”, the government is signalling to the construction industry that the government is committed towards restructuring the industry in the next 2 years, albeit at a tighter pace.

Then, there’s the third group of businesses, where the government continues to value their core investments in Singapore and while the government would encourage them to maintain their core business functions in Singapore, would also want to provide financial support to them to expand into the region, so that if businesses might intend to ship out, or to move a majority of their functions into other region, the government will can use these incentives to motivate them to stay in Singapore. The Land Productivity Grant and the assistance to SMEs to help them expand their overseas footprint is intended to do that.

On the overall, the budget is really intended to spur business innovation and productivity, but the key as to which businesses will move up the value chain will really depend on whether the cost cutting measures are enough to make up for the increases in labour costs. Thus labour-intensive industries will be the most hard-hit. But if they are able to find innovative ways to improve their productivity, they will continue to thrive in the business environment in Singapore.

As to whether the initiatives in the budget will succeed will lie in the details and execution. When the government talks about assisting SMEs to grow, which SMEs is the government talking about? Are there only specific industries or SMEs of specific sizes that will be assisted? Will smaller SMEs be driven out of the competition? As to whether these initiatives will benefit all businesses in Singapore, we would need to know how they will be executed.

Budget 2013: A Budget for Businesses

To summarise for Part 2 of this article, Budget 2013 is a budget that has considered business interests very thoroughly, and has introduced initiatives meant to assist businesses on all fronts, towards reducing costs, investing in productivity, increasing accessibility and reducing barriers towards obtaining financial incentives, so that businesses can efficiently restructure themselves in an environment that is conducive for the change to take place.

Essentially, what the government is saying to businesses is this – we will reduce your costs, but you need to hire fewer people, and we will help you to restructure your business by improving productivity – so we will provide you with funds to increase your investment in equipment, and the training and education of your employees. At the same time, you need to move up the value chain and maximise the land use in Singapore by intensifying your core business interests in Singapore, but at the same time, we will help you to expand into the region by providing money to support your expansion. In doing so, the government hopes to build trust with these businesses. In a way, the cost saving measures are broad, in terms of the tax breaks, yet they are targeted towards achieving certain objectives, such as for productivity innovation and land use maximisation and intensification.

Of course, the Singapore government is known for micro-planning, and thus even as these broad initiatives have been introduced, there would be some qualifications that would need to be met, before businesses would be able to benefit from all the initiatives. Some businesses or SMEs might fall out of the system and a further analysis would need to be done to understand the details of the initiatives and their loopholes.

Also, as much as the government would like to have control, everything might be so controlled that we might be over-doing it. Some room for organic innovation can allow for growth areas which the government might never have thought about to blossom. Also, current budget initiatives to enhance innovation takes a top-down approach. If the government provides more leeway for bottom-up innovation, there might be new ideas as well.

Finally, the coverage of The Straits Times of the budget for businesses is actually quite comprehensive. When it comes to sharing information with businesses, it is interesting how the government is actually quite open. Sadly, that’s not the case with the people.

To also read up more about how the budget can impact a small SME, Mr Leong Sze Hian has written a very good article. You can read it here.

Budget 2013: Not A People’s Budget

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Budget 2013’s initiatives for the people. Even as the government aimed to close the loopholes and gaps for businesses and to increase their accessibility to financial assistance, as well as to provide even more financial assistance to them, the government isn’t interested to increase accessibility to financial assistance for the people and remains conservative in the financial assistance it renders to the people.

At the heart of the matter is that the government does not believe that the people, by themselves, are able to be productive. The government believes that productivity growth is only in the realm of businesses, and thus they are only willing to invest heavily in businesses to reap productivity benefits and profits. This can also be seen in the measures that the government has introduced in Budget 2013, where initiatives to boost the productivity of businesses are hinged upon partnerships with larger entreprises and public-sector research institutions and private sector technology providers.

In order for Singapore to dramatically shift away from the current mode of working, it requires that this government acknowledges that every individual in Singapore are able to be innovators and creators for the economy, as well as for the country. What this means is a fundamental shift in thinking by the government towards its outlook on the people, and in investing in a population, which will be trained to think critically and drastically differently from the current way of thinking. For example, if you look at the older people in nursing homes, can they also take on the responsibility of being peer-caregivers for the other older people, so that we can hire fewer caregivers for these homes? Or perhaps, how can we explore generating electricity from an individual’s activities, so that the individual also contributes to the electricity network in Singapore?

In the Singapore Population White Paper 2013 that the government had released earlier this year, the government had seemed to want to continue on the focus to increase the number of foreign workers into Singapore. Even though the government had projected for a slower population growth in the decade preceding 2030, it did not seem that the government was sincerely committed in traversing Singapore’s economy towards the knowledge economy, and in restructuring the economy.Whether or not the uproar among Singaporeans against the government’s economic direction in the population white paper had any cause to do with the announcements in Budget 2013, Budget 2013 shows the first serious and holistic push by the government to restructure the economy, in recent years.

As for the people, there are 3 more years before the next general election. The government is in no hurry to introduce any drastic policies which will favour Singaporeans, as it is too early at this point to do so, since the impact of Budget 2013 will be lost by the next general election. If anything, the government would save any massive change in policy direction for the people in Budget 2015 or Budget 2016, which is unfortunate, because the people’s well-being is then held ransom by the government’s peg of any initiatives of their well-being to votes. And not only that, budget initiatives which will favour the people will therefore come only once every five or six years. Which also means that the government has also tied businesses to increasing their productivity and restructuring their businesses within 3 years, because this is how long they have before they need to act in accordance to the people’s wishes.

Finally, if Singapore was to want to position itself firmly as a knowledge economy in the next decade, the government would need to start making a very serious push towards reforming the education system, so that we will be able to produce workers who will be able to think innovatively and expansively for the knowledge economy. As it is, some employers have shared on how they would not hire a Singaporean graduate, but would hire a graduate who had studied overseas, because of how the overseas graduate would be able to think more expansively, and in diverse ways. The flaw of Singapore’s education system, which has very much focused on rote learning and conservative teaching methods, has created a worker population which some might label as “waiting to be spoon-fed”. A knowledge economy requires workers which think in multiple ways and who can bring about innovative thinking. The Singapore economy needs to move up the value chain to become a knowledge economy and the government knows that. However, the government would need to move away from creating an education system that will protect their political security and move towards an education system that will support vibrant discussions and critical thinking abilities among the people. This also means that the government has to shift its thinking to recognize that an empowered and critically-thinking people can be an asset towards enduring its power, rather than to afflict it.

Dissecting Budget 2013: Part 2

This is part of a series of articles to understand Budget 2013 and its significance for businesses and the people in Singapore. You can read Part 1 of the article here and the summary of Part 1 here.

For Part 2 of this article, we will focus on the budget for businesses. For the first part, in the table below, I will summarise the budget for businesses, and discuss broadly about the thinking behind the budget and the broad impact at the later part. Where possible, I have also included links to the initiatives, for easy reference.

Budget 2013 for Businesses: “Restructuring for Quality Growth”

Budget 2013 for Businesses: “Restructuring for Quality Growth”

Broad 3-Year Transition Package Initiatives:

  • Productivity and Innovation Credit (PIC) Bonus: Businesses that invest a minimum of $5,000 per Year of Assessment (YA) in PIC qualifying expenditure will receive a dollar-for-dollar matching cash bonus. The bonus will be up to $15,000 over three Years of Assessment, YA2013 to YA2015. The PIC Bonus is expected to cost $450 million over three years. According to the Annex A-4 in the Budget 2013 Documents, “This is in addition to existing PIC benefits of: (i) 400% PIC tax deductions up to $400,000 in expenditure for each PIC qualifying activity; or (ii) Cash payout at 60% on up to $100,000 of the qualifying expenditure.”
  • 30% of corporate tax rebate, payable up to $30,000 per Year of Assessment. This is expected to cost $1.3 billion over three years.
  • Allow owners of commercial vehicles who choose to renew their ten-year COEs for another five years in the first instance to extend their COEs further for another subsequent five years.
  • One-year 30% road tax rebate for goods, vehicles, buses and taxis. The rebate will take effect on 1 July 2013 and save businesses $46 million.
What will actually happen:

  • Seen in totality, there are other cost-saving measures which the government had introduced in Budget 2013, which businesses can look at on the whole to base their business decisions:
    • Wage Credit Scheme: Government will co-fund 40% of wage increases for Singaporean employees over the next 3 years, for Singaporean employees earning up to a gross monthly wage of $4,000 ($3.6 billion over 3 years)
    • Productivity and Innovation Credit (PIC) Bonus ($450 million over 3 years)
    • 30% of corporate tax rebate ($1.3 billion over 3 years)
    • 30% road tax rebate for goods, vehicles, buses and taxis ($46 million over 1 year)
    • Land Productivity Grant: support companies which intensify their use of land in Singapore. Help will also be given to those who choose to relocate some operations offshore, including to the immediate region, while retaining core functions in Singapore and saving land ($60 million)
  • Though this has to be balanced in light of the additional costs that businesses will have to fork out:
    • Higher Foreign Worker Levies across the board in July 2014 and July 2015: revised levies range from $315 to $1,050 (see link for breakdown)
    • Minimum S Pass qualifying monthly salary raised from $2,000 to $2,200 from 1 July 2013 (which might represent higher costs)
    • MOM will put in place a framework to ensure that firms give fair consideration to Singaporeans in their hiring practices (which might represent higher costs)
    • Employer contribution rates for low-wage workers will be restored from below 11% to 16% from 1 January 2014 (cost employers $83 million in 2014)
  • All in, businesses have been asking for lower operational costs and more assistance to boost productivity, and Budget 2013 seems to have catered to that. Though, this has to be seen in light of the additional labour costs that will be incurred.
What needs to be done to make sure initiative(s) work:

  • Budget 2013 has catered for this as well. To ensure that the initiatives to boost productivity will be successful, previous feedback and requests from businesses has been to reduce the barriers to receiving such assistance and to provide further assistance on the adoption of new equipment. The government has announced the following initiatives, in light of this:
    • Improve the accessibility of government support schemes for our SMEs. Amongst other things, SPRING will enhance the Enterprise Development Centres into one-stop, integrated SME Centres ($32 million)
    • Make it easier and faster for businesses to make Productivity and Innovation Credit (PIC) claims. For example, restaurants will be able to claim for dishwashing machines and contractors can claim for scissor lifts ($130 million over 3 years)
    • Collaborative Industry Projects: consortia of firms will develop solutions to industry-specific productivity challenges  (Estimated $100 million over 3 years)
    • PACT scheme (Partnerships for Capability Transformation): foster SME collaborations with large enterprises so as to enable co-innovation, capability upgrading and sharing of best practices within the supply chain (Estimated  $60 million over 3 years)
    • Link up SMEs with public-sector research institutions and private sector technology providers to identify and develop productivity solutions that give them a competitive advantage ($51 million)
    • Help SMEs who are expanding their overseas footprint by mitigating the risks inherent in such ventures. In addition to the Political Risk Insurance Scheme introduced last year, IE Singapore is working with Asian Development Bank (ADB) and private insurers to expand the Asian Development Bank’s Trade Finance Programme for Singapore exporters. This will provide credit guarantees to facilitate exports by our companies.
    • Set aside land for Integrated Construction and Precast Hubs to promote prefabrication in construction, and enhance grants to encourage adoption ($10 million over 2 years)
  • On top of this, businesses had also requested that the government provide support to invest in manpower, education and training for their employees to enhance their work productivity and efficiency. Again, this has been catered for in Budget 2013:
    • Enhance the Workfare Training Support (WTS) scheme for lower-wage Singaporeans as well as programmes to help PMEs to develop further expertise or to make mid-career switches.
    • Launch an SME Talent Programme, developed by SPRING Singapore, together with the industry chambers and trade associations. The programme will provide awards to encourage polytechnic and Institute of Technical Education (ITE) students to join our SMEs upon graduation.
    • Top up the Lifelong Learning Endowment Fund (LLEF) by $500 million. (In 2012, $121 million was spent and in 2011, $136 million was spent, so $500 million should be able to provide for another 3 years or so.)
  • Not only has the government identified a need to work with businesses to boost productivity among the current businesses in Singapore, on the whole, there is a need to identify new areas for innovation, to boost Singapore’s productivity in new areas:
    • EDB will set aside $500 million over the next five years to support a Future of Manufacturing plan, by working with key industry partners, universities, polytechnics and Research Institutes to test-bed new technologies and develop applications that can be commercialised and tapped on by firms, including SMEs. The Future of Manufacturing is “a report by the World Economic Forum (and) written in collaboration with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited,” which describes how, “Talent, the ability to innovate and the strategic use of public policy will play a significant role in defining manufacturing sector competitiveness in developed and emerging economies going forward.” The report can be found here.
    • Set up Satellite Industry Development Fund ($90 million) to support the emerging satellite industry
    • Develop a pool of 2,500 analytics professionals over the next five years to support this new area of professional services industries through programmes such as NTU’s recently launched Business Analytics degree.
Are these good initiatives? What are better initiatives?

  • As I have mentioned at the start of this article, this budget is a budget for businesses, and it is a very good budget for businesses. The budget looks holistically into the needs and wants of the businesses, and try to provide for them as far as businesses want.
  • However, some businesses might argue that they would have preferred if direct cost reduction measures in rents and transport costs be provided. However, the government had preferred to provide tax breaks, such as the 30% corporate tax rebate and 30% road tax rebate, which enable businesses to have more flexibility towards managing costs. For example, the Land Productivity Grant is also an innovative way which the government is encouraging businesses to continue to locate their businesses in Singapore, whilst moving out lower-end manufacturing needs to neighbouring countries. Instead of lowering rents which might not have the effect on retaining businesses in Singapore if rents are not low enough, the government aims to use this grant to shift Singapore up the value chain by doing away with labour-intensive industries, whilst retaining core business interests in Singapore. This is an ingenious move. In effect, the government has tied business interests to Singapore through rooting businesses here, by way of financial incentives. The other reason for using tax breaks is also because tax breaks are a financial instrument which can be adjusted more flexibly. A specific reduction in land costs or transport costs might make it more difficult to adjust the costs in the longer term.
  • As to whether the initiatives in the budget will succeed will lie in the details and execution. When the government talks about assisting SMEs to grow, which SMEs is the government talking about? Are there only specific industries or SMEs of specific sizes that will be assisted? Will smaller SMEs be driven out of the competition? As to whether these initiatives will benefit all businesses in Singapore, we would need to know how they will be executed.
Why did the government plan these initiatives in this way?

  • The Singapore government has always prioritized the growth of businesses and creating a supportive environment for businesses as the key to Singapore’s economic growth and longevity. Budget 2013 is definitely a budget aimed at regenerating growth among businesses in Singapore. It also showed renewed focus and re-prioritisation by the government back into productivity innovation to restructure the Singapore economy, and to move Singapore up the value chain.
  • This restructuring is long overdue, though. In 2005, the government shifted gears to open up our borders, which allowed businesses to employ cheap labour, which had led Singapore into becoming a labour-intensive economy, where other social ills, such as depressed wages and inequalities have also arisen. The government had also focused on attracting high net worth individuals to invest in Singapore, so as to accumulate wealth through foreign investment into Singapore, which has driven up housing prices and others costs in Singapore. Budget 2013 represents a shift in mindset by the government to seriously move into the restructuring the economy, which the government has postponed for at least the past 8 years.
  • After the tightening of foreign workers last year and with the threat by businesses leaving, the government had to act to stamp the outflow. One might argue that in 2012, the government had pandered towards populist sentiments and wasn’t able to convince businesses sufficiently on how, even as the government had seemingly pandered towards populist policies, if businesses were to understand deeply, the Singapore government had never changed its course in supporting businesses. Budget 2013 was really to affirm to businesses on the Singapore government’s commitment to them.
  • In the Singapore Population White Paper 2013 that the government had released earlier this year, the government had seemed to want to continue on the focus to increase the number of foreign workers into Singapore. Even though the government had projected for a slower population growth in the decade preceding 2030, it did not seem that the government was sincerely committed in traversing Singapore’s economy towards the knowledge economy, and in restructuring the economy. Whether or not the uproar among Singaporeans against the government’s economic direction in the population white paper had any cause to do with the announcements in Budget 2013, Budget 2013 shows the first serious and holistic push by the government to restructure the economy, in recent years.
  • As for the people, there are 3 more years before the next general election. The government is in no hurry to introduce any drastic policies which will favour Singaporeans, as it is too early at this point to do so, since the impact of Budget 2013 will be lost by the next general election. If anything, the government would save any massive change in policy direction for the people in Budget 2015 or Budget 2016, which is unfortunate, because the people’s well-being is then held ransom by the government’s peg of any initiatives of their well-being to votes. And not only that, budget initiatives which will favour the people will therefore come only once every five or six years. Which also means that the government has also tied businesses to increasing their productivity and restructuring their businesses within 3 years, because this is how long they have before they need to act in accordance to the people’s wishes. 
  • Finally, if Singapore was to want to position itself firmly as a knowledge economy in the next decade, the government would need to start making a very serious push towards reforming the education system, so that we will be able to produce workers who will be able to think innovatively and expansively for the knowledge economy. As it is, some employers have shared on how they would not hire a Singaporean graduate, but would hire a graduate who had studied overseas, because of how the overseas graduate would be able to think more expansively, and in diverse ways. The flaw of Singapore’s education system, which has very much focused on rote learning and conservative teaching methods, has created a worker population which some might label as “waiting to be spoon-fed”. A knowledge economy requires workers which think in multiple ways and who can bring about innovative thinking. The Singapore economy needs to move up the value chain to become a knowledge economy and the government knows that. However, the government would need to move away from creating an education system that will protect their political security and move towards an education system that will support vibrant discussions and critical thinking abilities among the people. This also means that the government has to shift its thinking to recognize that an empowered and critically-thinking people can be an asset towards enduring its power, rather than to afflict it.   

On the whole, you can see that Budget 2013 aims to do the following:

  • Increase businesses’ productivity through investments, training and education, and through increasing labour costs to reduce the reliance on cheap labour
  • Provide incentives to root core businesses in Singapore whilst assisting them to expand non-core activities into the region. This is also why Singapore has heavily invested in the Iskandar region in Malaysia and in strengthening transport links to their capital, Kuala Lumpur.
  • Reduce overall business costs through tax breaks and other financial assistance

Also, from the way that Budget 2013 is framed, you can see that there are certain industries which the budget is targeted to grow:

  • Major businesses
  • Businesses with strong capital
  • Businesses which are nimble and with expansion plans
  • Businesses which are able to boost productivity and restructure
  • SMEs of a certain size and with strong capital
  • Transportation companies
  • New industries

But this doesn’t mean that businesses which are not part of these industries will not benefit from the budget. The government is really sending a signal to encourage businesses in Singapore to find ways to restructure themselves, and as long as they are willing to come on the bandwagon to increase productivity, they will ride on the change together.

You can see that the government is also stricter with some industries, namely the manufacturing, marine, construction and process industries, where the foreign worker levies have been raised significantly. The government has done so, in part because these industries might be the most labour-intensive, and while the government anticipate a slowdown in the growth of these industries, they hope that the productivity measures and the tightening of the foreign worker curbs together, can spur the change among these industries. For example, in the construction industry, the government anticipates the demand and output to reduce, from $32 billion to $20 billion, and $33 billion to $22 billion respectively, so this is a good time for the construction industry to restructure itself. At the same time, the government isn’t saying that the industry isn’t important. By setting aside “land for the integrated construction and precast hubs to promote  to promote prefabrication in construction, and enhanc(ing) grants (of $10 million over 2 years) to encourage adoption”, the government is signalling to the construction industry that the government is committed towards restructuring the industry in the next 2 years, albeit at a tighter pace.

Then, there’s the third group of businesses, where the government continues to value their core investments in Singapore and while the government would encourage them to maintain their core business functions in Singapore, would also want to provide financial support to them to expand into the region, so that if businesses might intend to ship out, or to move a majority of their functions into other region, the government will can use these incentives to motivate them to stay in Singapore. The Land Productivity Grant and the assistance to SMEs to help them expand their overseas footprint is intended to do that.

On the overall, the budget is really intended to spur business innovation and productivity, but the key as to which businesses will move up the value chain will really depend on whether the cost cutting measures are enough to make up for the increases in labour costs. Thus labour-intensive industries will be the most hard-hit. But if they are able to find innovative ways to improve their productivity, they will continue to thrive in the business environment in Singapore.

Budget 2013: A Budget for Businesses

To summarise for Part 2 of this article, Budget 2013 is a budget that has considered business interests very thoroughly, and has introduced initiatives meant to assist businesses on all fronts, towards reducing costs, investing in productivity, increasing accessibility and reducing barriers towards obtaining financial incentives, so that businesses can efficiently restructure themselves in an environment that is conducive for the change to take place.

Essentially, what the government is saying to businesses is this – we will reduce your costs, but you need to hire fewer people, and we will help you to restructure your business by improving productivity – so we will provide you with funds to increase your investment in equipment, and the training and education of your employees. At the same time, you need to move up the value chain and maximise the land use in Singapore by intensifying your core business interests in Singapore, but at the same time, we will help you to expand into the region by providing money to support your expansion. In doing so, the government hopes to build trust with these businesses. In a way, the cost saving measures are broad, in terms of the tax breaks, yet they are targeted towards achieving certain objectives, such as for productivity innovation and land use maximisation and intensification.

Of course, the Singapore government is known for micro-planning, and thus even as these broad initiatives have been introduced, there would be some qualifications that would need to be met, before businesses would be able to benefit from all the initiatives. Some businesses or SMEs might fall out of the system and a further analysis would need to be done to understand the details of the initiatives and their loopholes.

Also, as much as the government would like to have control, everything might be so controlled that we might be over-doing it. Some room for organic innovation can allow for growth areas which the government might never have thought about to blossom. Also, current budget initiatives to enhance innovation takes a top-down approach. If the government provides more leeway for bottom-up innovation, there might be new ideas as well.

Finally, the coverage of The Straits Times of the budget for businesses is actually quite comprehensive. When it comes to sharing information with businesses, it is interesting how the government is actually quite open. Sadly, that’s not the case with the people.

To also read up more about how the budget can impact a small SME, Mr Leong Sze Hian has written a very good article. You can read it here.

Budget 2013: Not A People’s Budget

Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Budget 2013’s initiatives for the people. Even as the government aimed to close the loopholes and gaps for businesses and to increase their accessibility to financial assistance, as well as to provide even more financial assistance to them, the government isn’t interested to increase accessibility to financial assistance for the people and remains conservative in the financial assistance it renders to the people.

At the heart of the matter is that the government does not believe that the people, by themselves, are able to be productive. The government believes that productivity growth is only in the realm of businesses, and thus they are only willing to invest heavily in businesses to reap productivity benefits and profits. This can also be seen in the measures that the government has introduced in Budget 2013, where initiatives to boost the productivity of businesses are hinged upon partnerships with larger entreprises and public-sector research institutions and private sector technology providers.

In order for Singapore to dramatically shift away from the current mode of working, it requires that this government acknowledges that every individual in Singapore are able to be innovators and creators for the economy, as well as for the country. What this means is a fundamental shift in thinking by the government towards its outlook on the people, and in investing in a population, which will be trained to think critically and drastically differently from the current way of thinking. For example, if you look at the older people in nursing homes, can they also take on the responsibility of being peer-caregivers for the other older people, so that we can hire fewer caregivers for these homes? Or perhaps, how can we explore generating electricity from an individual’s activities, so that the individual also contributes to the electricity network in Singapore?

In the next part of the article, I will discuss Budget 2013’s initiatives for the people.

Dissecting Budget 2013: Part 1 (Key Points)

In this article, I will outline the key points highlighted in the longer version of this article. You can read the longer version of the article here.

Increase in Foreign Worker Levies

Even though the levies for foreign workers are raised, for Singaporeans, the government has implemented the Wage Credit Scheme (which is supposed to theoretically raise the wages of Singaporeans) and increased the employer’s CPF contribution for the Singaporean low-wage worker. However, after taking into account the supposed wage increase and increase in CPF contribution of the Singaporean worker, will it still be cheaper to hire a foreigner?

After July 2015, if you look at the levy for the S Pass holder, the lowest levy is $350. If we compare this to the Singaporean worker, where if the employer has to make a CPF contribution of $350, or 16% of the employee’s salary, this means that the employee will earn $2,062.50, which is lower than the $2,200 that the employer should pay for the foreign worker. This means that the foreign worker will be $137.50 more expensive than the Singaporean worker. Will $137.50 be enough a deterrent to hiring a foreign worker? Not only that, if you hire a worker at higher wages, the Singaporean worker will increasingly become more expensive. If the employer were to hire a worker at $2,500, the employer would have to pay only $350 for the foreign worker levy but $400 for the Singaporean worker’s employer CPF contribution. This means that the Singaporean worker will be more expensive than hiring a foreign worker. According to the Ministry of Manpower, “The Foreign Worker Levy, commonly known as ‘levy’ is a pricing mechanism to regulate the number of foreign manpower in Singapore.” Clearly, this is not the case. It is still cheaper to hire foreign workers, at high salary ranges.

What if we were to look at the highest foreign worker levy in the construction industry? In June 2012, there were 104,500 Singaporeans working in the construction industry, of which, 38.8%, or 40,546 were in the category of production and transport operators, cleaners and labourers. In comparison, there were 293,400 work permit holders in the construction industry. There are 7 times more foreign workers than Singaporeans in the “lower-skilled” areas of the construction industry. Is the foreign worker levy here used to “regulate the number of foreign manpower in Singapore”? In 2012, based on the number of work permit holders in the construction industry, the government would have collected a revenue of a maximum of $147 million from the foreign worker levies, just from the construction industry itself. Instead of collecting this $147 million as foreign worker levies, what if some of it could be channelled back into investment in productivity growth? And this $147 million is not yet accounting for the 1,268,300 foreigners in Singapore, at the end of 2012.

Theoretically, the raising of the minimum S Pass qualifying monthly salary is a good move because essentially, the government is saying that if businesses want to employ a worker who will be paid the same wage, businesses should be more likely to employ a Singaporean over a foreigner, with the same wage. However, as can be seen, in reality, this will not occur. A better initiative would be to tier the foreign worker levies according to the salary ranges, so that at each salary range, the foreign worker will continue to be more expensive than the Singaporean worker, and so that Singaporeans will continue to be employed if they are equally qualified. Also, the foreign worker levies implemented to industries with a high reliance on foreign workers shouldn’t be so high that it heavily increases the costs of operation for the businesses.

A better policy would be to also implement a minimum wage law, so that businesses will not undercut the wages of the workers, and will be required to pay them a fair wage that is commensurate to the cost of living in Singapore.

Wage Credit Scheme

The government had introduced the new Wage Credit Scheme, where the government will co-fund 40% of wage increases for Singaporean employees over the next 3 years, for Singaporean employees earning up to a gross monthly wage of $4,000.

According to Annex A-3 the Budget 2013 Documents, “At the end of 3 years, the employee (who receives an annual increase of $200 every year) will receive a total of $14,400 more in wages, of which the Government would have co-funded $5,760.” “The Wage Credit Scheme is estimated to cost the government about $3.6 billion over 3 years,” which means that if every worker has an increase of $200, 625,000 Singaporean workers would be able to benefit. There are about 380,000 to 400,000 Singaporeans earning less than $4,000, which means that some Singaporeans would be able to obtain an increment of more than $200 every year. The question is, would businesses bite?

Theoretically, businesses might take advantage of the government’s co-funding of the wage increases to further increase the wages for Singaporean employees. However, in reality, because of the high operational costs, businesses might, in effect, continue to pay employees the same wage increase that would be originally planned for, and absorb the 40% government co-funding as savings. Otherwise, they might only make incremental increases, and still be able to earn from the co-funding. For example, the government might have presupposed that if an employer were to plan to increase the wage of an employee by $100, given the co-funding, the employer might then increase the employee’s wage by $166, so that the employer continues to pay $100 of the increment, which would represent the 60%, and the government forks out another 40% to pay an additional $66. In reality, the employer might continue to increase the wage by $100, but claim the 40%, or $40, of this wage increase as cost savings. Otherwise, the employer might increase by a bit more, say by $120, which means the employer still saves.

The problem with the Wage Credit Scheme is first, there isn’t a minimum amount that businesses are expected to increase the employee’s wage up until, and second, that there isn’t a minimum amount or proportion that businesses are expected to increase the wages by. There is simply no incentive for businesses to increase the wages of employees by more than they had planned for, because businesses would want to make as much profits as possible. The government has also not explained to businesses why they are expected to increase wages, so there might be no buy-in from businesses as to why they need to do so.

Also, to ensure that there are higher wage increases for the lower-wage workers, the government should implement this scheme in a tiered manner, such that there will be a higher proportion of co-funding for businesses which intend to increase the wages of the low-wage earners. By doing so, this will be more likely to benefit low-wage workers, which this scheme is supposedly to rightfully help. However, the government has not included this as part of the scheme. Has the government not thought about this, or does this say something about the government’s perceptions of “low-skilled” workers?

Finally, and most importantly, what has not been taken into account is how the 40% co-funding will work. Of this 40% co-funding, 20% will go back to CPF. Also, of the increased salary, the employer would have to pay another 16% of the employer’s contribution to CPF. If this 40% co-funding doesn’t account for the employer’s contribution to CPF, what this means is that out of the 40% of the co-funding, if 20% goes into the employee CPF contribution and 16% goes into the employer’s CPF contribution, the government only needs to fork out 4% of the co-funding, which means that out of the $3.6 billion set aside for this scheme, the government will only need to spend $360 million.

Conclusion

In summary, you can see that the government’s said aims to increase foreign worker levies to protect Singaporeans, and to implement the Wage Credit Scheme to increase the wages of Singaporeans, will come to almost nought for Singaporeans, because first, the Wage Credit Scheme lies in the hands of the businesses and there is no regulation that the businesses are held against, which means that they will look at how the scheme will affect overall business costs and adopt the scheme in that light, rather than to observe the rights of the Singaporean worker. The wages of Singaporeans might therefore not increase by more than what was originally planned for increase by businesses.

Also, for the initiatives discussed here, the government ultimately benefits because the foreign worker levies are used in tandem with CPF contributions, which the government has carefully calibrated to allow them to earn maximally. By creating a deception that the foreign worker levies are created to protect Singaporeans, the government has increased the levies, which even with slightly fewer foreigners coming in, will still allow them to continue to earn. Together with CPF, where most to the wage increases for the Wage Credit Scheme will be channelled into, the government will continue to earn revenue from all sides, even as they claim to be on Singaporeans’ side.

You can read the full article here.

Dissecting Budget 2013: Part 1

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam unveiled Budget 2013 on Monday, 25 February 2013.

In this article, we will take a broad look at the initiatives unveiled and whether they had adequately met the needs of businesses and the people in Singapore.

Before I proceed, you can see in the chart below a broad summary of what I believe and have been championing that the government needs to do for Singapore, in the previous articles. Later on, we will do a comparison between Budget 2013 and what the government would need to do.

What the Singapore Government Needs to Do

Chart 1: What the Singapore Government Needs to Do

In this article, I will move beyond any rhetoric and focus on whether the government has “got it right”. Along the way, I will also look into what the real intentions of the government were in unveiling the initiatives, and what their overall planning objectives were.

You would notice that in his speech, Mr Shanmugaratnam had actually mentioned the word, “quality growth”, at least 7 times and the word, “inclusive”, at least 8 times. Let’s take a look at how “inclusive” this budget is, and how it aims to achieve “quality growth”.

The government has also broadly framed the announcements of the initiatives of Budget 2013 under two broad categories: for businesses (Restructuring for Quality Growth) and for the people (Building a More Inclusive Society).

I will frame the discussion of Budget 2013 in the following manner. I will list out the sections outlined in Budget 2013 and use the outline below for discussion.

Section
Initiatives:

  • I will provide a summary of the initiatives unveiled under this section.
What will actually happen:

  • I will discuss the actual impact of these initiatives.
What needs to be done to make sure initiative(s) work:

  • I will discuss how the initiatives can be made to work better for their intended purpose.
Are these good initiatives? What are better initiatives?

  • I will discuss if these initiatives are good, and whether they can be improved, if so.
Why did the government plan these initiatives in this way?

  • I will discuss discuss what the government’s real intention for these initiatives is.

(A) Economic Performance

Before I proceed, I will discuss briefly about Singapore’s economic outlook and performance as outlined by Mr Shanmugaratnam.

Mr Shanmugaratnam had shared that the government had underestimated the budget for FY2012, and that the actual budget surplus was actually 3 times more, at $3.9 billion. As Mr Leong Sze Hian had mentioned, “This seems to be the same repeat story that budget surpluses invariably always end up to be much higher than estimates, such that we have huge surpluses in about nine out of every 10 years.”

What we need to know is this – of the revenue that the government collects every year, not all this money is spent. Last year, $50.11 billion was spent, out of the $55.18 that was collected. On top of this, the government also collects CPF monies from us. Some people have commented that the CPF belongs to the people, and thus shouldn’t be counted as revenue. Rightfully, yes, but the government borrows our CPF money, which is eventually invested in Temasek Holdings and GIC, where they earn 17% and 6.8% interest rate. However, as I have mentioned, not only is the majority of the interest earned not returned to us, we have been withdrawing lesser and lesser of our CPF monies out, from 2001, even as there should be more people who would need to withdraw their CPF. So, to be clear, the CPF is also used by the government as a form of “revenue”, but where the earning of this “revenue” is not channeled fully back to the people.

In 2011, CPF had assets of $210 billion, which would have increased in 2012. In 2012, government revenue was $55 billion, which means that the CPF assets are almost 4 times larger than the government revenue. Basically, what this means is the government has more than enough money to provide for the social welfare spending needs of the people, even without increasing taxes, which had thus led Mr Leong to ask, “why is there a need to raise taxes, like property and vehicle taxes?” Of course, the government might take a long term approach towards accumulating the reserves of Singapore, but let’s take a further look into Budget 2013 to see how this actually works out.

(A.1) Economic Outlook and Performance

Mr Shanmugaratnam had mentioned that, “Rising costs remain a concern for both businesses and households.” However, what he did not mention was that, for many businesses, the top costs that businesses would like the government to reduce are rents and transport costs, both of which are within the government’s domain of control.

It was interesting that Mr Shanmugaratnam had said that, “Household incomes have risen, in 2012 and over the last five years. Adjusted for inflation, the median Singaporean household saw income per member grow by 14% over the last five years, cumulatively,” because if you look at the annual change in real total wages from 2008 to 2011, real wages actually fell by 0.6%. So, I am not quite sure where Mr Shanmugaratnam had obtained this data from.

Mr Shanmugaratnam is right to say that, “many Singaporeans who work in jobs at the lower rungs of the income ladder, especially cleaners, waiters, and security guards, have not fared as well.” Indeed, there are 300,000 Singaporeans who earn less than $1,000 every month and 450,000 Singaporeans who earn less than $1,500 every month. Not only that, according to the Ministry of Manpower, “wages of plant & machine operators and cleaners, labourers & related workers were largely flat for younger workers before declining for those in their mid forties onwards,” which means that for low wage workers, not only do they see their real wages decline over the years due to inflation, their real wages are also declining due to age. Importantly, our older workers are also over-represented in the low wage occupations. For example, among cleaners, labourers and related workers, 66% of them are aged 50 and above. Among plant and machine operators and assemblers, 56% of them are older workers. The problem that the low wage workers face are also faced by our older workers, who have been paid low wages on a chronic basis, such that they do not have enough to use in their old age.

(B) On “Restructuring for Quality Growth”

In this article, we will look at how the initiatives to tighten foreign worker curbs, such as implementing higher foreign worker levies and the intended higher wages for Singaporean workers, through the Wage Credit Scheme, will interact, to achieve a restructured labour market, or not.

(B.1) Foreign Worker Strategy

Foreign Worker Strategy
Initiatives:

  • Tighten foreign worker curbs in the Construction, Process and Marine sectors, as well as the Services sector
  • Raise Foreign Worker Levies across the board in July 2014 and July 2015. Increases will be most significant in sectors where productivity growth is weak and the growth of the foreign workforce is significant. All additional levies collected back to help businesses upgrade and share productivity gains with their workers. Revised levies range from $315 to $1,050 (see link for breakdown)
  • From 1 July 2013, minimum S Pass qualifying monthly salary raised from $2,000 to $2,200.
  • MOM will put in place a framework to ensure that firms give fair consideration to Singaporeans in their hiring practices.
What will actually happen:

  • These initiatives cannot be seen on their standalone. These initiatives to tighten foreign worker curbs need to be seen in complementary light with initiatives to increase the wages of Singaporean workers through the Wage Credit Scheme, the boosting of productivity, through investments in innovation and reduction in costs, and through tax rebates.
  • Even though the levies for foreign workers are raised, for Singaporeans, the government has implemented the Wage Credit Scheme (which is supposed to theoretically raise the wages of Singaporeans) and increased the employer’s CPF contribution for the Singaporean low-wage worker. After taking into account the supposed wage increase and increase in CPF contribution of the Singaporean worker, will it still be cheaper to hire a foreigner?
  • After July 2015, if you look at the levy for the S Pass holder, the lowest levy is $350. If we compare this to the Singaporean worker, where the employer has to make a CPF contribution of $350, or 16% of the employee’s salary, this means that the employee earns $2,062.50, which is lower than the $2,200 that the employer should pay for the foreign worker. This means that the foreign worker will be $137.50 more expensive than the Singaporean worker. Will $137.50 be a deterrent to hiring a foreign worker? On top of that, if you hire a worker at higher wages, the Singaporean worker will increasingly become more expensive. If the employer were to hire a worker at $2,500, the employer would have to pay only $350 for the foreign worker but $400 for the Singaporean worker’s employer CPF contribution. This means that the Singaporean worker is more expensive than hiring a foreign worker. According to the Ministry of Manpower, “The Foreign Worker Levy, commonly known as ‘levy’ is a pricing mechanism to regulate the number of foreign manpower in Singapore.” Clearly, this is not the case. It is still cheaper to hire foreign workers, at certain levy tiers.
  • On top of that, employers have been known to work around the policy by declaring the wages of the S Pass holder as the minimum amount ($2,200) but paying the foreign worker a lower wage. This means that due to the lack of tight regulation, the foreign worker levies’ most useful effect is to increase the revenue of the government, but will not achieve the said effect of reducing Singapore’s reliance on foreign workers.
  • What if we were to look at the highest foreign worker levy in the construction industry? In June 2012, there were 104,500 Singaporeans working in the construction industry, of which, 38.8%, or 40,546 were in the category of production and transport operators, cleaners and labourers. In comparison, there were 293,400 work permit holders in the construction industry. There are 7 times more foreign workers than Singaporeans in the “lower-skilled” areas of the construction industry. Is the foreign worker levy here used to “regulate the number of foreign manpower in Singapore”? In 2012, based on the number of work permit holders in the construction industry, the government would have collected a revenue of a maximum of $147 million, just from the construction industry itself. Instead of collecting this $147 million as foreign worker levy, what if some of it is channelled back into investment in productivity growth? And this is not yet accounting for the 1,268,300 foreigners in Singapore, at the end of 2012.
  • Realistically, at this point, it is difficult to attract Singaporeans to work in the “low-skilled areas” of the construction industry, and which is why the government raised the levies significantly, knowing that since it would be difficult to hire Singaporeans and businesses would still need to hire foreign workers anyway, the government can continue to earn even more from these businesses. But how will businesses feel, as this will add to their increasing costs, which they have no control over. On the surface, the foreign worker curbs might be aimed at reducing Singapore’s reliance on foreign workers but based on how the curbs are also implemented in industries where there is already a shortage of Singaporean workers and a necessary huge reliance on foreign workers, this will further add onto the cost pressures of businesses in these industries. The aim of the initiatives, in totality, is to reduce their reliance on foreign workers but will the initiatives be over-taxing?
  • Seen in its totality, the foreign worker levies do not achieve their said objective of regulation the number of foreign manpower into Singapore. The levies are simply intended to generate revenue.
What needs to be done to make sure initiative(s) work:

  • The government will need to communicate its timeline clearly to businesses as to how the government foresees that the tightening of foreign worker curbs, investments in innovation to boost productivity and tax rebates will work hand-in-hand to assist businesses to restructure their working model. Businesses will need support in this area, for their planning. The government has plans to pair SMEs with research institutions to assist them in restructuring, but a clear timeline as to how these different initiatives interact will be beneficial and reassuring for businesses.
  • MOM “will put in place a framework to ensure that firms give fair consideration to Singaporeans in their hiring practices.” Before this framework is finalized, MOM will need to consult Singaporeans for our review of the framework, so that we can ensure that the framework would adequately protect Singaporeans. Also, this framework needs to be passed as a law for it to have teeth. Otherwise, if it is only a guideline, it will still be bypassed by employers.
  • MOM has been known to be lax on employers and have allowed employers to, on many occasions, to bypass the policies. MOM and NTUC need to take their roles seriously. They will need to set up a dedicated arm to work with employers to inculcate best practices, as well as to strenuously police employers and ensure that they are taken to task, if they do not abide by the law.
  • They key issues here are two-fold: (1) What will be done to ensure that businesses will continue to employ Singaporeans and pay them a fair wage, and not allow them to make use of the loopholes to hire a foreigner, if the Singaporean is equally qualified? (2) How will MOM and NTUC strengthen and tighten their policing framework to ensure that errant businesses are taken to task for poor employment practices? Finally, how will MOM and NTUC hold themselves accountable to ensure that they will work in the interests of Singaporeans, as well as the workers?
Are these good initiatives? What are better initiatives?

  • Theoretically, the raising of the minimum S Pass qualifying monthly salary is a good move because essentially, the government is saying that if businesses want to employ a worker who will be paid the same wage, businesses should be more likely to employ a Singaporean over a foreigner, with the same wage. However, as can be seen, in reality, this will not occur. A better initiative would be to tier the foreign worker levies according to the salary range or to increase the foreign worker levies proportionately by each higher salary range, so that at each salary range, the foreign worker will continue to be more expensive than the Singaporean worker, so that Singaporeans will continue to be employed if they are equally qualified. Also, the foreign worker levies implemented to industries with a high reliance on foreign workers shouldn’t be so high that it heavily increases the costs of operation for the businesses.
  • Also, what have not been taken into account are the educational qualification and other requirements for the job. In real life, for a job where a Singaporean might request to be paid $2,500, the employer might be able to employ a foreign worker for the same job at $2,200, which would still disadvantage the Singaporean. Thus in the new framework that MOM is developing, it would need to take into account the qualifications and requirements of the job, as well as the expected wage range for this job, to protect Singaporeans from discriminatory practices.
  • Even as the government increases foreign worker levies, foreign worker levies do not protect Singaporeans from unfair employment practices. The levies only benefit the government. Levies thus have the effect of increasing government revenue but will not encourage businesses to hire responsibly, as it is still cheaper to hire a foreigner at higher wage ranges. Businesses would still be able to work around the system by under-paying the worker. With increased levies, this is even more likely to happen.
  • A better policy would be to also implement a minimum wage law, so that businesses will not undercut the wages of the workers, and will be required to pay a fair wage that is commensurate to the cost of living in Singapore.
Why did the government plan these initiatives in this way?

  • The government has implemented foreign worker curbs because it needs to, on the surface, appease Singaporeans. If the government has its way, it would want to take another 5 to 8 years to slow down the inflow of foreigners, or until 2030. However, the government only has 3 years before the next general election, and thus it had needed to compress the timescale to for the tightening of foreign worker inflow to within 3 years. However, the government has known that they would have needed to restructure the economy a few years back. These initiatives are long overdue and the government should take responsibility for their inaction a few years ago to address the current problem.
  • Yet, while doing so, the increase in foreign worker levies would not have the said effect of regulating the number of foreign workers, and yet, businesses are expected to pay even higher costs in industries where they have no choice but to rely on foreign workers. Will the government’s intended aim to increase the revenue through the foreign worker levy be unwise?
  • However, because the government did not act on this a few years ago and had compressed the timeline into 3 years for economic restructuring (or 5 years, if you include the past 2 years since the initial curbs were implemented), this means that businesses are also forced to react on a tighter timeline, because of the government’s delayed planning. Yet, because the government had initially opened the floodgates to foreign workers in 2005 until 2011 and so businesses have allowed themselves to operate in a labour-intensive manner, to expect businesses to scale down on manpower suddenly within 2 to 3 years can be taxing to businesses. And thus the government had rolled out several other initiatives in this budget to ramp up innovation and productivity growth. We have 3 years to see if these initiatives will be effective.
  • Finally, as mentioned, the real beneficiary of levies is the government. The levies boost the government’s coffers. They are not an effective measure to reduce reliance on foreign workers, and were not intended to be, in practice. Levies have been in place over the past few years, but there has been no slow down in the number of foreign workers, until curbs in the actual numbers were enforced. The real initiatives that will reduce foreign worker inflow are the enforced curbs, and the new MOM framework on fair hiring practices, if implemented properly. On top of that, the levies can impede on the hiring of Singaporean workers because at higher wage ranges, the levies are not high enough to dissuade businesses from hiring foreign workers. Yet, if the levies are too high and businesses hire Singaporean workers, the government wouldn’t be able to earn from the levies. The government has thus planned to continue to keep the foreign worker levies at an amount that is not too high (though higher for industries which need to have a high reliance on foreign workers), so that businesses will still employ foreign workers, and pay levies, but this is contrary to their said support to hire Singaporean workers. As such, the levies are counterproductive towards protecting Singaporeans.

(B.2) Wage Credit Scheme

3-Year Transition Support Package (1)
Initiatives:

  • Wage Credit Scheme: Government will co-fund 40% of wage increases for Singaporean employees over the next 3 years, for Singaporean employees earning up to a gross monthly wage of $4,000. The Wage Credits will be automatically paid out to employers annually. The WCS will cost the Government about $3.6 billion over 3 years.
What will actually happen:

  • According to Annex A-3 the Budget 2013 Documents, “At the end of 3 years, the employee (who receives an annual increase of $200 every year) will receive a total of $14,400 more in wages, of which the Government would have co-funded $5,760.” “The Wage Credit Scheme is estimated to cost the government about $3.6 billion over 3 years,” which means that if every worker has an increase of $200, 625,000 Singaporean workers would have benefited. There are about 380,000 to 400,000 Singaporeans earning less than $4,000, which means that some Singaporeans would be able to obtain an increment of more than $200 every year. The question is, would businesses bite?
  • Businesses will not be looking at the Wage Credit Scheme just in terms of the wages of their employees. They will look at this scheme as part of a cost-reduction measure in Budget 2013. Businesses will now be doing their calculations to see if the other cost reduction measures will have a significant impact on their costs, and whether there would be cost savings from these measures, even if they were to increase the wages of employees, beyond the intended increase. Otherwise, there will be little impact on wage increases, even with this scheme.
  • Also, the wage increases are dependent on the company’s discretion. What this means is that for businesses, what is there for them to increase the wages of low-wage workers significantly? Businesses might continue to increase the wages of low wage workers by a few dollars and those nearer to the $4,000 wage ceiling with several hundred dollars. The side-effect to this scheme is that income disparity will still be maintained, and income inequality might even rise.
  • Theoretically, businesses might take advantage of the government’s co-funding of the wage increases to further increase the wages for Singaporean employees. However, in reality, because of the high operational costs, businesses might, in effect, continue to pay employees the same wage increase that was planned for, and absorb the 40% government co-funding as savings. Otherwise, they might only make incremental increases, and still be able to earn from the co-funding. For example, the government might have presupposed that if an employer were to plan to increase the wage of an employee by $100, given the co-funding, the employer might then increase the employee’s wage by $166, so that the employer continues to pay its 60% of $100, and the government forks out another 40% to pay the additional $66. In reality, the employer might continue to increase the wage by $100, but claim the 40%, of $40, of this wage increase. Otherwise, the employer might increase by a bit more, say by $120, which means the employer still saves.
  • Also, as compared to the foreign worker, by increasing the wage by more than planned (in the best case scenario), this would make the Singaporean worker more expensive than the foreign worker. As long as there is unequal wage differentiation between the Singaporean and foreign worker, there is little incentive for the employer to pay a significantly higher wage to the Singaporean worker when the employer can pay a lower wage to the foreigner. Also, how would the employer explain the wide wage disparity to the foreign worker if the employer were to pay the Singaporean worker a significantly higher wage?
What needs to be done to make sure initiative(s) work:

  • The problem with this is initiative is first, there isn’t a minimum amount that businesses are expected to increase the employee’s wage up until, and second, that there isn’t a minimum amount or proportion that businesses are expected to increase the wages by. There is simply no incentive for businesses to increase the wages of employees by more than they had planned for, because businesses would want to make as much profits as possible. The government has also not explained to businesses why they are expected to increase wages, so there might be no buy-in from businesses as to why they need to do so.
  • The only way to ensure that businesses pay fair wages is for the government to set a minimum wage that is commensurate to the cost of living in Singapore, and for the government to then subsidise a proportion of this wage increase. However, the government might be unwilling to set a minimum wage for various reasons. First, due to the uncertain global economic outlook, the government might not want to institute a permanent law that will be difficult to undo, if the need arises, say, if the economy sinks into a recession in the next few years. Second, the government might continue to believe that wage adjustments should be left to demand-supply market economics, such that they would provide the wage credit as monetary incentive, for which businesses will then take into account their budgetary planning, and might cater to the increase of wages accordingly. However, as explained, this is quite unlikely.
  • The only way that the Wage Credit Scheme can truly work, therefore, without the implementation of a minimum wage law, is if the government sets the tone by adjusting the wages of the civil service and companies owned by them, directly or indirectly, upwards, by the ‘recommended’ wage increases, so that this will affect the market demand-supply economics externally and due to the trickle-down effects, result in businesses also adjusting wage increases upwards by a similar proportion or to match the wage increase more fairly. But will the government want to do so?
  • Also, to ensure that there are higher wage increases for the lower-wage workers, the government should implement this scheme in a tiered manner, such that there will be a higher proportion of co-funding for businesses which intend to increase the wages of the low-wage earners. However, the government has not included this as part of the scheme. Has the government not thought about this, or does this say something about their perceptions of “low-skilled” workers?
Are these good initiatives? What are better initiatives?

  • The minimum wage credit scheme, on theory, sounds interesting. But it wouldn’t work – not with current business sentiments where costs are high and businesses feel that profit margins are incredibly low, or falling. Businesses will be looking at this scheme, in light of the other initiatives in this budget, such as the increase in foreign worker levies and tax breaks. Even so, businesses will not make any knee-jerk reaction until they understand how the budget will affect them, and this may take another one or two years, for them to calculate and observe the effects. As such, because wages are something that a company has control over, it is unlikely that they would take it as lightly as to increase wages by more than what they had planned for.
  • As mentioned, this scheme will not achieve the objective to increase wages. To really be able to increase wages, an enforced wage growth and minimum wage law needs to be put in place.
Why did the government plan these initiatives in this way?

  • The government has previously proposed that any wage increases should be pegged to productivity gains. However, over the past few years, productivity has either not grown or fallen. Thus the government’s proposal to peg wages to productivity is an ineffective proposal, one which the government knows. Productivity growth has dropped over the past few decades and based on current conditions, productivity growth is unlikely to grow beyond 1% or 1.5%. The government’s proposal of growing our wages by 3% every year, on the wave of 3% productivity gain every year is therefore not possible.
  • Also, the government has been reluctant to set a minimum wage because as mentioned, the global economic outlook might be uncertain and they might not think that it is ‘safe’ to implement a policy which would be difficult to undone. Even so, Hong Kong had implemented minimum wage in 2011 and all the other Asian Tigers, South Korea and Taiwan, and Japan, also have minimum wage laws, and this hasn’t hurt their economies. As also mentioned in previous articles, if the government implements a minimum wage, what would this do to its own profits? Will the government be keen to institute a minimum wage, if it might reduce its revenue?
  • However, it needs to be known that any wage increment is long overdue. Since 2005, when the government opened the floodgates to foreign worker inflow, this has resulted in a depression of the wages of Singaporeans. Over the past few years, real wage growth has remained stagnant or dropped in some years, inflation has shot up and so has housing, car and COE prices. In 2005 itself, the proportion of low-wage workers earning less than $1,000 increased from 15% to 17% and has maintained at that level, and not dropped back to pre-2005 levels. And as mentioned, there are 300,000 Singaporeans earning less than $1,000 and 450,000 earning less than $1,500. The government needs to act to increase wages, which are long overdue, from way back from 2005.  And if the current initiative of the wage credit scheme doesn’t work, this means that wage increases would be long overdue for possibly 10 years or more. Also, the current scheme, if it works, will not uplift wages to be commensurate to the cost of living by today’s standards. It will simply increase the wages to the cost of living of the standards of a few years back, because at this point, we are only recovering part of the wages lost due to the depression of the wages and they won’t even match up to the level that should be concordant at this point.
  • However, the wage credit scheme could be a delay tactic, for political purposes. As mentioned, the wage credit scheme is meant to benefit businesses, and Budget 2013 is really a budget meant for businesses. The general election is still 3 years to come, so there is no urgency for the government to meet all of Singaporeans’ needs at one go. All the Asian Tigers and Japan have minimum wages. It wouldn’t make sense for Singapore not to do so. If indeed the government realizes that a minimum wage law is a necessity, the wage credit scheme is meant only as a stop-gap measure to provide the initial impetus to encourage businesses to kick-start the process of wage increases, before a minimum wage law is proposed, just before the general election. But this is only a hypothesis. The current government is very fixated on wealth protection and revenue diversification, to maximise its revenue gain from all the sources that it can tap on. A minimum wage law will compromise on this strategy, so even as it would be a populist measure to garner votes at the next general election, this government might still not do it. Though, to say that this government wouldn’t bow down to populist pressures would also be incorrect, because the recent curbs of foreign worker inflow and the pace at which the curbs are implemented is a populist measure, aimed at subduing Singaporeans’ unhappiness, but had put undue strain on businesses instead. Though, as explained above, even if the government rolls out populist measures, they are intended to look so on the surface but do not actually benefit Singaporeans.
  • Finally, and most importantly, what has not been taken into account is how the 40% co-funding will work. Of this 40% co-funding, 20% will go back to CPF. Also, of the increased salary, the employer would have to pay another 16% of the employer’s contribution to CPF. If this 40% co-funding doesn’t account for the employer’s contribution to CPF, what this means is that of the 40% of the co-funding, if 20% goes into the employee CPF contribution and 16% goes into the employer’s CPF contribution, the government only needs to fork out 4% of the co-funding, which means that out of the $3.6 billion set aside for this scheme, the government will only need to spend $360 million.
  • All in, the impact of this scheme to increase the wages of Singaporeans is minimal because there isn’t a specific wage increment that businesses need to abide by. They are not held accountable to any fixed increment required, so they might only make use of this scheme, for any cost-savings on their businesses. Thus wages of Singaporeans, and especially for the low-wage workers, shouldn’t be expected to increase significantly, and income inequality might also rise, if higher rises are given to the higher-wage earners. Also, even though the government has set aside $3.6 billion of the budget for this scheme, most of the budget will flow back to the government’s CPF. Since 2001, CPF withdrawals have decreased year after year, so the actual impact of this scheme on the Singaporean worker is very minimal.

In summary, you can see that the government’s said aims to increase foreign worker levies to protect Singaporeans, and to implement the Wage Credit Scheme to increase the wages of Singaporeans, will come to nought for Singaporeans, because first, the Wage Credit Scheme lies in the hands of the businesses and there is no regulation that the businesses are held against, which means that they will look at how the scheme will affect overall business costs and adopt the scheme in that light, rather than to observe the rights of the Singaporean worker. The wages of Singaporeans might therefore not increase by more than the planned increase.

Also, for the initiatives discussed here, the government ultimately benefits because the foreign worker levies are used in tandem with CPF contributions, which the government has carefully calibrated to allow them to earn maximally. By creating a deception that the foreign worker levies are created to protect Singaporeans, the government has increased the levies, which even with slightly fewer foreigners coming in, will still allow them to earn significantly. Together with CPF, where most to the wage increases for the Wage Credit Scheme will be channeled into, the government will continue to earn revenue from all sides, even as they claim to be on Singaporeans’ side.

I will continue the discussion of Budget 2013 in subsequent parts.

Population White Paper: Exposing Xenophobia in Singapore and PAP’s Ineffective Leadership

Over the past few weeks, there has been a lot of discussion among Singaporeans on the issue of xenophobia. Some believe that there is no xenophobic sentiments in Singapore, whereas some think that there are. Some believe that we shouldn’t label what’s going on as “xenophobia”. Yet, the discussion rages on, as different personalities have chimed into the discussion.

There are some key questions that we need to ask.
1) Are Singaporeans indeed xenophobic, or rather, are there some Singaporeans who would discriminate irrationally?
2) What has happened that has led to the current situation?
3) And what do we need to do to move away from the current situation?

Why Are People Xenophobic? Why Do People Discriminate?

The truth is that there are some people in Singapore who would discriminate, and this is not unique to Singapore. Everywhere else in the world, there’s always a group of people who would discriminate. So, in Singapore, before Singaporeans had discriminated against foreigners on this wider scale, there were other populations who were discriminated against, such as against races and other sexual identities, such as gay people. We’ve seen in recent years how the police has arrested people for speaking up on issues pertaining to race.

The question to ask is – why do people discriminate? There are many theories and explanations, some of which are that people discriminate because they fear, and most of the time, they fear because they do not have a good understanding of something, or they might simply be reacting to their own insecurities. So, when there were some people who had spoken up against the wedding practices of another race, it’s because there weren’t familiar with the practice of another race, and when they are in the midst of doing something in their own homes, instead of taking the time to go down to the wedding, and finding out what’s actually happening, and celebrating with the wedding couple, a person might choose to look at things from his or her own perspective, and believe think that the wedding is a disturbance.

But what’s really happening? We simply don’t understand the practices of others well enough and are unwilling to find out more about what the other person is doing, and when we judge them according to our point-of-view, without looking at things from their point-of-view, we will take on a biased perspective. In order for us not to discriminate, we can reach out to learn more and understand more about another so that with that understanding, we won’t be biased in our attitudes.

Resentment Towards Foreigners or Bad Government Policies?

In the current debate about Singaporeans vs foreigners, it’s a similar issue where Singaporeans are reacting to their fears. In the past, the fears arose because our wages were being depressed or not rising as quickly as inflation, prices such as property prices were increasing, places became more crowded and we decided to attribute all these to foreigners. Truth is, it is true that as foreigners were coming in, wages became depressed, property prices increased and places became more crowded. But I would like you to take a step back and reconsider – if the government had enacted adequate policies to prevent businesses from paying low wages, would wages have been depressed? If the government has enacted policies to prevent housing prices from shooting up, would housing prices have shot up? If the government had enacted policies to calibrate the increase of the population in Singapore, would we feel over-crowding?

Let’s not even look at foreigners. How many Singaporeans took advantage of the rising housing prices and invested in homes to earn a quick buck as well? Before we point at foreigners, did we even look at ourselves at pointed at ourselves? Some of us might then argue, but not all Singaporeans had done that. Only the rich did. Well, then perhaps we can go on and on, and keep finding scapegoats for our own displeasure.

First, we need to understand why we discriminate. We discriminate because we fear that we are unable to continue having a balanced livelihood and because we feel that our lives might be threatened. And we’ve learnt to attribute our fear to what seems to be the most obvious cause – people, and more specifically, we’ve learnt to think of these ‘people’ as the foreigners. But as I’ve explained, this isn’t a specific issue about foreigners. It’s a complex issue about wages, prices, over-crowding, and ultimately, where do all these issues point to? Or rather, what’s their common root problem? Bad government policies.

Why Do We Choose to Be Upset with Foreigners Rather Than On Government Policies?

I’ve been trying to reinforce this point several times. However it hasn’t gotten into people. Why? It’s simply easier to direct your anger at a person, rather than a broader idea such as the policies or the government. If you direct your unhappiness at a person, it feels that it’s easier to resolve the ‘problem’. And so, people are asking Li Yeming to de repatriated because they claim that he is inciting xenophobic sentiments in Singapore. It’s very easy to ask someone to leave. Then we can also ask the many Singaporeans who have invested in properties to also leave. And then what? After Li Yeming, who should we turn to? Gilbert Goh (the organizer of the protest against the population white paper)? I read this morning about an article which claims that Gilbert has taken on many ideologies before, some against and some favourable towards foreigners, and had aimed to discredit him. I do not know how much of the information is true.

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But do you see what we are doing? We are picking on one person after another. It’s always a person. Why don’t we dare take on the larger challenges? Why is it, when we know it’s governmental policies that are problematic and the government in itself that needs to reform itself politically, do we yet refuse to take on the larger, more pertinent problem? Why do we continue to target individuals, who, let’s be honest, are only pawns on a chessboard game. Do you think Li Yeming had criticized Mr Low Thia Kiang on his own accord? Do you think that he could possibly frame his arguments all by himself? He’s not acting on his own, but like The Straits Times, he has become a mouthpiece, and he is only sprouting what he had been told to, with guidance by the powers may be. And this is a clever strategy, because in the event that whatever he says backfires, as it has now, it only backfires on him. No one else needs to take the flak for it. So Li Yeming has also become the scapegoat.

And we need to be very clear. Why are we wasting our energies on a scapegoat? Why do we not direct it at the perpetrator? Like an American president, Eleanor Roosevelt, had said before, “Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people.” Right now, many Singaporeans are discussing the people – Li Yeming and Ong Soh Chin, who wrote an article about the ‘Punk Boy’ who she believes represents a “threatening” presence. But why do we focus ourselves on the people and chastise them? How different are we from them? How different are we from Li Yeming who had accused Mr Low Thia Kiang, or how different are we from Ong Soh Chin, who had labelled a fellow Singaporean as the ‘Punk Boy’? Are we not equally at fault for our own targeted responses at individuals?

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Photo credit: Say “No” to an overpopulated Singapore Facebook page

Moving Beyond Discourse Against People to Developing Solutions

Let’s try to discuss ideas. What did Li Yeming say that we had disagreed with? Let’s have a debate with him. And even as we do so, we do not need to drag his character into the fray as well. We do not need to malign him, whilst having a debate. If we do, we are only playing to our own anger and displeasure. We are only holding on to our internal fears, and we are using our fears to respond to him.

Which brings us back to our fears. In order to have a healthy debate with someone else about ideas and not about directing our anger at them, we need to understand our own fears. As I’ve explained, if you understand that you fear because you feel insecure, and if feel so because of lower wages, higher cost of living and over-crowding and if you understand that this is due to government policies, what action can you take? You can do two things. One, you can continue to get angry and fearful and direct your energies at blaming every foreigner that you see. Or two, you can decide to find ways to to resolve the issue, by speaking up against the government policies, by proposing alternative solutions, and by forming ourselves into groups to rally for change. Which is a more effective solution?

The Population White Paper As A Legitimization of Xenophobia

What the population white paper has done was to bring to fore the unhappiness that is already present among Singaporeans, and actually, among foreigners as well. Many foreigners have as well come to Singapore with beliefs of a world-class city, where they can earn a better living from. Don’t we all have the same wants when we move to another country or city? Yet, the foreigners come, feeling entrapped in a place where the promises didn’t seem to live up to their expectations, where they feel the same pressures from over-crowding, and where they have to put up with the verbal tirade that Singaporeans throw at them. They are as well, like us, victims of bad government policies. Of course, you might say that they have a choice to move out, but like all of us do, we need to think about career progression. It’s not as simple as to say, let’s get out.

Or what about the foreign workers who are lowly paid? How do we treat our maids? How do we treat the construction workers? Do we not similarly treat our maids with little respect and little freedoms? Do we not pay them low wages and expect them to do everything that we want from them? And when we are in a bad mood or stressed up at work, do we not also lash out at our maids? Why do we even complain about our government treating us badly when as employers, we don’t even have the basic decency to treat our employees and maids decently anyway?

It’s not about xenophobia, really. It’s about discrimination and its about our inherent attitudes. What has happened is that we have made use of the white paper to bring our discriminatory attitudes to fore. We have used the white paper to legitimize our discrimination towards foreigners. We have used it as an excuse to be able to throw our attacks at foreigners, by framing it as an issue about how the foreigners will cause the population to balloon to 6.9 million. Let’s be honest with ourselves. Let’s look at our own attitudes. Why do we discriminate. And as I’ve described throughout this article, we fear for our security and livelihood and thus we’ve decided to turn our attention onto foreigners. But foreigners aren’t the problem. The government’s bad policies are.

Where Is The PAP Leadership, Or Absence?

In fact, during this episode, where is PAP and where is the government? After the protest, one after the other PAP member had decided to slight the protest and brush off its significance. Nary one PAP member is willing to address the issues brought out in the protest and perhaps, start to take note of the real concerns that a pool of Singaporeans had brought out. Sure, it might be only 5,000 people but aren’t they people living in Singapore as well? What does it say of a government which is willing to slight the viewpoints of 5,000 Singaporeans but would bend their backs backwards to a few business representatives?

The PAP has not spoken out, to calm Singaporeans or to provide counterbalanced viewpoints about how we can understand foreigners in a different perspective, or to apologise for their missteps, and propose bold solutions to tackle the insecurities that Singaporeans have. Where is leadership when we need one? Where are leaders when we need them? Why is the PAP hiding in every hole that they can dig themselves into, rather than standing up and facing up to what they stand for? Why are the PAP members not being the leaders we’ve paid them millions to be?

I’m very displeased because this is the PAP which has used a fear-based ideology to constraint the people’s minds, such that in times like this, people operate on fear and learn to hurl assaults at another, instead of calm down, reflect and think about how to deal with the situation better. This is the PAP which is happy allowing the people to fight among themselves, where they hide in their holes, not wanting to bring balance back into Singapore. As the patron of the Singapore Federation of Chinese Clan Associations, why hasn’t PM Lee Hsien Loong spoken to the association, to educate the members about the importance of achieving social balance in Singapore? And perhaps if he has indeed has, why is it then the tirade continues?

But PAP’s Main Aim Is To Stay In Power. It’s Not On The Side Of The People

We all know the tirade was meant to attack Mr Low Thia Kiang, to dent the credibility of the Worker’s Party. But why does PAP allow party politics to take precedence over the peace of Singapore? Which is more important in Singapore? For you and PAP to stay in power? Or for there to be balance and peace in Singapore?

I’m very disappointed in this PAP-led government because as much as it claims to be on the side of the people, we all know by now that it’s only concerned about maintaining its power, and that it’s willing to go as far as to maintain its silence while the people let out at each other, all because if the people do not realise what the actual problem is, it saves them from the hassle of having to address the inherent problems. If there’s xenophobic attitudes in Singapore, and if there’s discrimination of any form in Singapore, PAP is, if not an instigator, a key player in allowing such discriminatory attitudes to be at play.

We’ve Allowed PAP’s Fear-Based Ideology to Entrap Us

And which is why I urge Singaporeans to understand what the main problems are. Why do we direct our anger at one another, when such anger cannot lead to any resolution? And so what if we ask one, or one thousand, or one million foreigners to go? Who will we turn to next? Singaporeans? Minority Singaporeans? If we let our fears run amok and allow ourselves to be ruled by our fears, we are playing exactly into the hands of PAP who have used their fear-based ideology to manipulate us.

Chris Ho had shared this on his Facebook today: “The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum….” — Noam Chomsky, The Common Good (courtesy of Black Orchid Syndicate [Singapore] on my FB wall). A pal, who used to work in the public media, points out that the quote says it all about the strategy used in Singapore. It’s completely accurate, he adds.” If you’ve noticed, this is exactly what PAP has been doing with the recent news. And we’ve played right into their hands.

Singaporeans Need to Focus on Developing Solutions and Taking the Government to Task

Singaporeans, we need to start looking at the issue clearly. We need to realise that we are showing anger and unhappiness at foreigners, and discriminating, because of our own internal fears and insecurities. Now, we need to cast that aside and understand what the real problem is – bad government policies. If this is the case, if we know that being upset with foreigners is only reacting to our own personal insecurities, we need to direct our energies to something more fruitful and effective, and come out with solutions and alternate policies which we will then rally the government to adopt. If there is a next protest, our aim should be to consolidate ourselves and to identify solutions and alternate policies which we will take the government to task on.

We have to be very cognizant of how the government uses the media to sway our thoughts, and to entrench our fears and how they’ve chosen to stay by the side even as they need to take on a leadership role now. Some Singaporeans are starting to discuss about what the ways are that we can vote, to ensure that we vote for the government we want, at the next general election, and how when the next government is formed, that we can play our part by being part of the solution. This is what we need to do. We need to move away discussing our fears and impinging it on people. We need to move beyond, to understand the backdrop as to why things occur, and how we can direct our energies to thinking about ideas, and putting these ideas out as solutions, and finding ways to make our government hear them. This is a more sustainable and effective solution to turning things around for ourselves, and finding the balance that we want for ourselves.

Singapore Has The Highest Income Inequality Compared to the OECD Countries

In the Today newspaper today, it was reported that the current way that Singapore computes the Gini coefficient (which is a measure of income inequality) is “based on household income from work per household member, as Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan do.”

According to Today, “some countries compute their Gini coefficients based on … the “square root scale” (used in some OECD reports), which “take into account that households may enjoy economies of scale when sharing resources among household members”.

According to the current way, “Singapore’s Gini coefficient of 0.478 last year, before accounting for Government transfers and taxes, is on a per-household-member basis.” According to the “modified OECD scale” Singapore’s Gini coefficient is “0.435 if the square root scale is used” and would be 0.414 after Government transfers and taxes.

All fine and well, right? If Singapore’s Gini coefficient is adjusted downwards based on a different scale, it looks like Singapore’s income inequality is actually not that high, right?

Singapore Has The Highest Income Inequality Compared to the Economically-Developed OECD Countries

Not really. What the Key Household Income Trends 2012 report doesn’t tell you that even if we use OECD’s scale to compute Singapore’s Gini coefficient, Singapore still has the highest income inequality, as compared to all the other developed economies in the OECD.

I had looked at the OECD Stats Extract and obtained the following statistics (of selected countries), in the chart below.

Gini Coefficient

You can see that, clearly, Singapore’s income inequality is significantly higher than the other economically-developed countries in OCED.

According to the ‘An Overview of Growing Income Inequalities in OECD Countries: Main Findings’ report, “policy choices, regulations, and institutions can have a crucial impact (on income inequality). They can shape how globalisation and technological changes affect the distribution of income. They can also influence income distribution directly, e.g. through deregulation in product markets, changes in social transfers, wage-setting mechanisms, or workers’ bargaining power.”

According to the report, “Public cash transfers, as well as income taxes and social security contributions, played a major role in all OECD countries in reducing market-income inequality. Together, they were estimated to reduce inequality among the working-age population (measured by the Gini coefficient) by an average of about one-quarter across OECD countries. This redistributive effect was larger in the Nordic countries, Belgium and Germany, but well below average in Chile, Iceland, Korea, Switzerland and the United States.”

I had superimposed Singapore’s statistics into the chart below. You can see that even before government transfers and taxes, Singapore’s Gini coefficient is already much higher than most of the economically developed countries. Whereas all the countries in this chart were able to reduce their income inequalities significantly, with the exception of South Korea, Singapore wasn’t able to do so, or rather, the government isn’t willing to. South Korea did not adjust income inequality downwards but its income inequality is comparatively much lower, to begin with.

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Credit: An Overview of Growing Income Inequalities in OECD Countries: Main Findings

The often put out argument by the government is that Singapore’s taxes are low, and thus we are not able to afford to provide high social welfare spending. However, is this true?

The report by OECD clearly puts to myth the Singapore government’s argument. It states that, “Redistribution is not only about cash. Governments spend as much – some 13% of GDP – on public social services (education, health, care services, etc.) as they do on all cash benefits taken together. Some countries even spend much more on the provision of such “in-kind” services than on cash benefits: it is the case in the English-speaking and Nordic countries, Korea, and Mexico. While the prime objective of social services is not redistribution, but the provision of a decent education, basic health care, and acceptable living standards for all, they are in fact redistributive. Across OECD countries, they reduced income inequality by one-fifth on average and their share of GDP and redistributive impact remained constant over the 2000s.”

Rising Income Inequality Will Result In Social Unrest

The report also warns that, “Rising income inequality creates economic, social and political challenges. It can stifle upward social mobility, making it harder for talented and hard-working people to get the rewards they deserve. Intergenerational earnings mobility is low in countries with high inequality such as Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and much higher in the Nordic countries, where income is distributed more evenly. The resulting inequality of opportunity will inevitably impact economic performance as a whole, even if the relationship is not straightforward. Inequality also raises political challenges because it breeds social resentment and generates political instability. It can also fuel populist, protectionist, and anti-globalisation sentiments. People will no longer support open trade and free markets if they feel that they are losing out while a small group of winners is getting richer and richer. Reforming tax and benefit policies is the most direct and powerful instrument for increasing redistributive effects… Government transfers – both in cash and in-kind – have an important role to play in guaranteeing that low-income households do not fall further back in the income distribution.”

According to Mr Soon Sze Meng in the Today newspaper, “The Ministry of Finance’s intergenerational income mobility study, which measured 38,500 father-son pairs for sons born between 1968 and 1978, shows evidence of lessening mobility among the poor… (and) social cohesion will wear away when the poor believe they cannot work their way up.” Though the Ministry of Finance would beg to differ, by saying that, “The cohorts studied (those born between 1969 and 1978) in fact experienced relatively high mobility… (even as) there was some evidence of slightly lower mobility for sons of poor fathers.”

The recent protest against the population white paper needs to be understood in this light. Do Singaporeans understand what the long term implications are to sound economic policies for Singapore? I am sure we do, as our parents and grandparents for a large part of the nearly 50 years of Singapore’s modern day history. However, as the report had pointed out, the rising income and social inequality, fuelled as well by a flawed practice of meritocracy which favours the well-heeled over the poor, has resulted in “social resentment”, and gradually, “political instability”, as can be seen. Thus discussion about xenophobia has also arisen out of this context of being “protectionist” – the people are reacting to their inner insecurities about their own future, and unfortunately have misdirected their anger onto foreigners, even as they should direct it to the government and their flawed policies. Because of government policies which have favoured the rich in and who have come to Singapore, “while a small group of winners is getting richer and richer”, this has caused Singaporeans to feel that “they are losing out” and thus they are starting to believe that Singapore can “no longer support open trade and free markets”. And thus Singaporeans are disagreeing with the 6.9 million population projection figure, because of fears of how an open trade and free market economic system will do to their already worsening livelihood.

Protecting Our Poor, Elderly and Women to Reduce Income Inequality

As the report has stated, “A key challenge for policy, therefore, is to facilitate and encourage access to employment for under-represented groups, such as youths, older workers, women and migrants. This requires not only new jobs, but jobs that enable people to avoid and escape poverty. Recent trends towards higher rates of in-work poverty indicate that job quality has become a concern for a growing number of workers. Policy reforms that tackle inequalities in the labour market, such as those between standard and non-standard forms of employment, are needed to reduce income inequality.”

However, in Singapore, instead of enabling our older workers, women and migrants to acquire new jobs that enable them to escape poverty, they are forced to work on low wages. This has the resultant effect of depressing the wages of Singaporeans who work in jobs which pay similarly, and has thus trap a group of Singaporeans in a state of chronic poverty. There are abour 300,000 Singaporeans who earn less than $1,000 a month and about 450,000 who earn less than $1,500. We often hear of age discrimination where elderly workers are not employed when employers find out about their age or where mothers have their employment terminated because of their pregnancies. Employers also pay migrants low wages because migrants have very low bargaining power. Because of the low pay that employers give to them, this results in Singaporeans’ wages being pushed downwards, which means that the pay of the lower income workers are not commensurate to the cost of living in Singapore.

The clear solution is to ensure that Singapore implements a minimum wage law which protects these marginalised groups from earning unequal wages. It also means for the government and businesses to have a fundamental re-understanding of how these supposed ‘low-skilled’ industries can be restructured, so that with technological investment, these occupations can become more ‘high-skilled’ and the workers can earn higher wages. However, the government currently does not believe in investing in these industries and thus this group of people will continue to be disadvantaged by the system and be trapped in chronic poverty.

As can be seen in the chart below, Singapore is the only country among the developed Asian economies which does not have a minimum wage law, to date.

Minimum Wage in Selected CountriesCredit: TimeOut

The Government Needs to Do The Right Thing

In the latest Key Household Income Trends 2012 report, the government decided to use new scales to compute the Gini coefficient, because they want Singaporeans to think that the income inequality in Singapore isn’t as bad as it seems, or even as we feel. The fact is that with the same amount of money, the people feel that they can buy less. They feel squeezed.

Yet, the government had wanted to put out a preposterous news article to try to confuse Singaporeans into thinking that the income and social inequality isn’t as bad as people think. How irresponsible! When you look at the other countries, these countries have much lower income inequalities, even before government taxes and transfers. Not only that, the government steps in further to further reduce the income inequalities significantly in many of these countries. Yet, our government has chosen to take a back seat and keep purporting about how their hands are tied because of the low taxes that the government is collecting.

In 2011, our personal income tax constitute only 13% of the revenue. The government has many other diversified funding sources, also through our CPF monies which they use for investment which accumulates high interests which are not channelled back. The government also earns substantial monies through their investments through Temasek Holdings and GIC. Is there more the government can do, even with their current state of finances, for the people? Certainly.

The question now is, if this government willing?

It is of no use and simply quite ridiculous to change a numerical statistic to try to make believe to people that our income inequality isn’t that bad, by whitewashing what the fact is, obviously. Instead of fudging the statistics, the government should instead start enacting policies, such as a minimum wage law and to channel more funding into our healthcare bills, where the government already forks out the lowest proportionate expenditure, as compared to other economically-developed countries.

This is the very least this government can do, or lose their already very damaging moral integrity, if there is any.

 

 

The Problem with Singapore: Relooking our Governing and Economic Fundamentals

A reader asked me the following question and below is my reply:

“Can you please give me your thoughts on how best to arrest the aged population problem in 2030 with the background now awash by the ill effects of capitalism that have crept insidiously into our life situations? If we make a move, there is strong opposition; but if we stayed put, we will diminish and perish as a nation.

In my opinion, the adverse ground feel against the government took root from the fact that they feel oppressed by the 1% rich and powerful – it is Singapore’s ‘Arab Spring’ or ‘Occupy Wall Street”. If we look around, it is the same everywhere – UK, EU. It is the business owners, the cruel business managers who are the cause of all this suffering. Often, governments are victims themselves – see how the US Congress deals with the Fed?

I cannot imagine Singaporeans oppose to the white paper to deal with the impending aged population, which is a certain problem in a few decades from now, just of their opposition to PAP. The aged problem has to be dealt with now and there is no time for delay. So, what can we do?

Regards,
Jacob”

*****

Please see below my reply:

Singapore’s Problematic Governing and Economic Fundamentals

I think if you look at the foundations of Singapore, they are very strong. We have a strong legal system and framework. And fortunately for now, we continue to have strong international business interests in Singapore and a well-educated group of Singaporeans. If not for these, Singapore would have started falling off the radar 5 years ago. We have to thank our founding leaders for this.

The problem that we have with Singapore now is that we have new leaders who have taken over the system who do not understand the fundamentals behind this system. They continue to promote the ideals that the initial leaders had put down – such as meritocracy – when their planning fundamentals have already shifted. It began in 2001 when this current group of leaders started shifting their goal posts to grow their wealth. They did this by earning not only from businesses, but from the people as well. And that’s why rents increased, CPF withdrawals decreased, real wages fell and so on. Thus they developed new principles of the growth of wealth, yet propagating old principles which no longer represent what they truly believe in, which is why you can see a disjoint when they speak of these olden values and you can see that they no longer understand what the values means.

To be fair, across the world, there was a dynamic shift into focusing on growing world economies through a strong focus on capitalism, profit maximization and consumerism, after the 2001. World economies were shakened by America’s propaganda and governments started becoming strongly capitalistic, and also took on the role of earning from their people. This was what happened in Singapore and what shifted. This also explains the further deepening of the income disparity.

Does PAP care about the people? I believe that there are PAP politicians who do believe and care for the people, but on the overall, the core management of PAP wants to increase Singapore’s wealth, so this compromises on their ability to care for Singaporeans, precisely because even if they want to care for Singaporeans, it is in the very areas that they know they need to care about, that they yet need to take advantage of Singaporeans. Which is why PAP continues to say that it has the backs of Singaporeans or that we are in this together, but yet continue to make money off the people. Our government is operating on contradictions. You see, on one hand, the PAP politicians sincerely believe that they enter politics to help Singaporeans, but on the other, their fundamental ideal to generate wealth prevent them from doing so. They need to overcome this hurdle.

We Need to Reform Singapore’s Political, Economic and Political Systems

But the question is, can this hurdle be overcome? There are two fundamental problems with our current batch of leaders. They are people schooled in the new education of Singapore, where they’ve been trained with a one-route mindset, geared almost exclusively for economic growth. Second, they’ve been severely sheltered from the rest of Singaporeans, having grown up in their protracted environment and education from the rest of Singaporeans. They cannot have a complete grasp of the realities of Singapore and Singaporeans, and their education doesn’t allow them to see expansively and holistically. This is why in the current debate over the population white paper, the current leaders could only focus on the problem at hand – we need more people – instead of realise that they need to look at the evolution of the problem, to understand the state the economy has evolved into, how it interacts with the population and their needs, and how we need to reenvision the problem by going back to the basics. They are unable to do that, precisely because they are a by-product of the Singapore’s education and its singular focus towards producing workers and managers for the economy.

Essentially, the real and much deeper problem is that we need to reform our economy and education system, but more importantly, the inability of our leaders do see this, and yet continue to believe in their decision-making also means that there is an urgent need to reform out political system. But this is something that PAP will not acknowledge, and so Singaporeans need to take the responsibility of reforming our political system, by voting in diverse minds into the government, to overhaul the thinking patterns within governance and political system. This does not suggest PAP isn’t the right government. The government is not about PAP and their power. The government is about putting people in who can represent us and who can think expansively, when needed, to resolve Singapore’s problems, and we owe it to ourselves to do what is right to protect ourselves, our future and our children’s future.

Taking Care of Singapore’s Older People

On how we can resolve our ageing problem, I will suggest this – currently, we look at our elderly as wealth generating nodes. We do not look at them as people. In fact, this is something the government does to everyone in Singapore – everyone is a statistic. When we do that, when the government manages Singapore, instead of thinking about their needs and well-being, the government has a very silo mindset of simply increasing the statistics of who work, and thus any statistic which is capable of becoming labour should work. And that’s how the government looks at Singaporeans. This is especially dire for the elderly, because at their old age, they shouldn’t be having to work day in, day out because in your golden years, you should be allowed to finally rest having been made to pander to the capitalistic tendencies of your country for the past 50 or 60 years of your life. They should finally be some respect accorded to you as a person, and not just as an economic node. But yet, the government continues to work them.

Realistically, for Singapore, the truth is we need more and more workers, but this is if we go down the current path. If indeed we need our older workers to work, the question is how can we ensure that they have a respectable work life? As I’ve discussed in a previous article, more than 90% of the older workers work full time and they work the longest hours of 49 hours. Also, a majority of them work in blue collar occupations. We need to allow them to work respectably. This means that if they have to work, we have to let them work shorter hours and for fewer days. Also, they are currently doing menial jobs. We need to allow them to use technology to make their work easier, or we have to allow them to move into occupations which do not repurpose them into unskilled jobs – because this frame of mind shows precisely that we do not value them, and that’s why we want them to take on the lowest skilled jobs in Singapore.

And most importantly, because they are in the blue-collar occupations, our older workers are paid the lowest wages. It becomes a chronic problem because they do not have enough savings to retire. They do not have enough in their CPF, Medisave and Medishield, and so forth, which means they are trapped in chronic poverty, which our older Singaporeans are stuck in. But did they choose it? The problem is with the system which marginalises them.

How Can We Protect People in the Lower Economic Groups?

And this is turn, a broader issue which involves thinking about our treatment towards supposed low-skilled workers. Do we think that they are so unimportant that we pay them such a low wage? Do we think that they are so unimportant that we import foreigner workers and pay them low wages to do these jobs? So again, the fundamental problem is that this government is capitalistic and our decisions as to how much we should pay low-skilled workers impinges on how little economic value capitalism has accorded their skills, and thus their pay.

We could go into a further elaboration on this. But put simply, we need to pay the supposed low-skilled workers fairer and more equitable pay, which also respects their role as a person, and not just as a worker. Once we are able to do this, we will be able to protect our older workers, because the very problem that has caused them to have to continue to work will be resolved upstream.

Which brings us to another issue – how can we simply increase the wages of the supposed low-skilled workers? We can because if you look at the Nordic countries, and even Australia and Canada, people are paid relatively high wages even if they are in supposed low-skilled jobs. Why? First, as described, it’s because we do not treat these workers as just economic nodes without capitalistic purpose, but we treat them as people who need to be respected and protected.

Why Singapore’s Productivity Continues to Be Low

Second, and this is the inherent problem of Singapore, is that we need to restructure these occupations. Currently, the government talks about raising the productivity of the low-wage earners so that once we do so, we can increase their wages. As I’ve discussed before, this will not happen (not with current mindsets and practices) because our productivity will not improve, as businesses have no impetus to invest in improving productivity, and why – because their profit margin is already so tight, also driven by the high rental that the government has put in place. So again, the government has a role to play in why downstream, productivity won’t improve, and why our low wage earners will continue to earn low wages and why our older workers will continue to work past 65, 67 or 70.

The government cannot peg wage growth to productive growth. The solution, and this applies to the whole of the Singapore economy, is to restructure and reform our economy and labour market. So, if you look at the example above again, instead of ‘increasing productivity’ we need to reform the industry. We need to first, accord proper hours and fair wages across the board to all workers, regardless of their age, gender, national identity etc. Then, we need to introduce new ways of working, such as by using technology.

But it comes to mind – isn’t this what we’ve been talking about? Yes and no. First, the current solutions are framed in terms of increasing productivity. This is not the right framing. It’s the wrong perspective. We need to look at it in terms of restructuring the job and labour market. Then, what this means is that companies need to have the impetus to do so. And this is where from here, the problems are not currently being discussed, and thus not resolved. This means that the government needs to be targeted in their approach, by working with specific industries to brainstorm how they can restructure these economies, and by investing financially to assist them on making the transition. But more so, and this I would argue is the key fundamental problem in this situation – the government needs to lower rental to reduce costs, so that this frees up the company with some spare cash and breathing space, to kick-start innovation and build momentum.

A Fundamental Rethinking In Government and of Governance Is In Order

Which brings me to this final point – will the government reduce rent? Will the government start treating people not just as workers but as people with rights, dignity and who should be respected in all senses, including their wage remuneration? This government will not because their organizing principles are structured along the lines of wealth generation, one which they undertook even more aggressively since 2001, and the limited education that they’ve undergone has prevented them from developing more dynamic solutions to resolve the current deeper impediments that surround our economy. If we want to reform our economy and our labour market, we need to reform the political system in Singapore.

In order to reform the political system in Singapore, the current government needs to have a change in their mindsets. The question on everyone’s mind is – can they? If we do not think they can, then we need to do what’s right by putting ourselves up, and then by voting ourselves in, so that we can reinvigorate our government with new thinking and new solutions. Thereafter, we need to ensure that all the other estates of governance – President, economy, judiciary, military, media – become independent so that they can become a credible check on the government, keep the government on its toes and allow the government to be kept nimble so that the government will be ensured to always think in dynamic ways to resolve issues in our country.

This is what I think and believe in. It would also be good to also understand how you might think about this.

Thanks much!

Roy

Why Singapore Government’s Rent-Seeking Behaviour is Detrimental to the Singapore Economy

In this article, I will discuss specifically on the impact of the rent-seeking behaviour by the government and how this is the key reason for our low productivity growth. This also explains why the government had to resort to increasing the population instead, because they couldn’t effectively improve productivity, by large part due to their rent-seeking behaviour, which reduces impetus for innovation. I will also the white paper in this context, and the reasons and timing for the release of the white paper.

To put it simply, in terms of the management of the economy, the role of the government should be two-fold:

1) Enact minimal laws and regulations to create an environment for businesses which is conducive for the ease of business exchanges, so that this will attract businesses to Singapore, and to also encourage them to invest and innovate, whilst earning profits.

2) Enact policies to protect the people’s social rights and prevent businesses from unfairly treating them, whilst businesses aim to maximise their profits. So, a government should enact laws such as anti-discrimination laws, for example.

At the same time, the government should regulate as minimally as possible, so that it doesn’t make businesses feel constricted. Otherwise, businesses will not find Singapore an attractive place to invest. Over-regulation might also reduce businesses’ willingness to innovate and develop new ways of working.

The Problem of the Singapore Government’s Business Interests

On the issue of Singapore, why has this become a problem?

1) First, our government is also in the business of profit-making activities. By some estimates, the government owns 60% of the economy. By right, what this means is that the government will do its best not to regulate the economy, so that it doesn’t impede on its own profit-maximisation activities. This is true in that the government is thus interested in keeping corporate tax rates low and is thus resistant to implementing a minimum wage or to increase employer’s CPF contributions back to 20%.

2) Not only that, because of the government’s ownership of the economy and this large ownership, the government, in effect, becomes a monopoly. Thus this reduces incentive for the government-company to innovate and do things differently since even as there is competition, the government controls the competition. Companies who want to invest in Singapore have to abide by the rules set out by the government, which thus means that they are less likely to challenge the government’s control over Singapore companies and will work around these barriers. This might explain why our broadband speeds for example, continue to fall behind other countries in the region, such as South Korea and Hong Kong. Because the telecommunications companies are owned by the government, and because there is a lack of competition, there is no incentive for the government to increase broadband speeds.

3) Most importantly, the government is also in the business of collecting rents from businesses. This, in itself, isn’t a problem because as a responsible government, the government needs to diversify its income sources, and so through taxes, CPF contributions, from housing and COE premiums. And for the businesses, this will be from corporate taxes and rents. We know that for Singaporeans, because of the government’s diversification of income sources, we are paying more to the government from different channels. Not only that, we are paying increasingly more over the past few years, as can be seen from the lower CPF withdrawals, and the much higher housing prices and CPF premiums. But what had not been discussed adequately is the impact of the government’s rent-seeking behaviour on companies.

As mentioned, the government is also in the business of running the business and because it owns a large part of the Singapore economy, it also acts as a monopoly in some sense. Businesses which want to invest in Singapore needs to play by the government’s rules, by virtue of the fact that the government is, well, the government. And thus in the event that rules are not favourable towards businesses, the hands of the businesses are tied.

How Does the Government’s Practices Affect Businesses

Then, the question is, why would businesses then want to invest in Singapore? Fortunately, for now, businesses are still coming in because of a sound legal and regulatory framework, which provides a business environment which is relatively non-corrupt and which protects businesses from unfair practices. The logic is that it should encourage innovation.

Now, where rents become too high for companies, this means that companies would have to close or move out from Singapore. The main businesses which will be affected are the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) because of low cash-flow. However, big businesses are less likely to find high rents a problem because they would have more capital. As a paper by Murphy, Shleifer and Vishny featured on Harvard’s website had said, “public rent-seeking in particular may afflict innovative activity the most and hence sharply reduce the rate of economic growth.” Now, the government obviously knows this and the government knows that at the rate it is marking up its rental, mainly big businesses will be able to sustain themselves in Singapore, and which is why the government’s key focus is on attracting big businesses and multi-national companies (MNCs) to Singapore.

For MNCs, it isn’t a problem for them to want to invest in innovation, because they should have the capital. However, it would be a problem for SMEs, because they don’t. So, for SMEs who continue to want to stay in Singapore, they are unlikely to want or are able to innovate, and thus productivity is unlikely to improve for them. So, herein lies the problem of the rent-seeking behaviour of the government. It prevents SMEs from wanting to innovate, and productivity will stay stagnate, or drop. Not only that, because these businesses feel squeezed by the high rentals, they are unlikely to pay their workers fair wages as they would want to depress their worker’s wages as much as possible, to reap higher profits. At the same time, they would also want to import cheaper labour to do so.

Low Rental Causes Productivity And Wages to Remain Low

So, this explains Singapore’s issue of chronic low and dropping productivity. It also explains Singapore’s chronic problem of low wages. Where does the problem come from? The government’s rent seeking behaviour, that’s where. Does the government knows this? I bet it does. Which then begs the question – why did they want to peg the increase in wages to the increase in productivity when they would know that productivity is unlikely to rise in their planned scenario, and thus wages are unlikely to rise as well. Then, why? Well, the government isn’t interested in reducing rents, because it will eat into their revenue, and thus this proposal of pegging wages to productivity. Then, you might say, maybe the government wants more revenue so that it can spend more on the people. I don’t buy this because first, if so, why would the government do this pegging and causes wages to continue to remain low? Second, if indeed the increased revenue is for the people, where is it? It’s not coming back, and at the same time, people are taking less out of their CPF. So clearly, the government is in this to increase the revenue and profits, but for who?

Bringing In More Workers to Resolve Low Productivity Growth

But back to the problem – and so because the government isn’t able to raise productivity, because of their refusal to reduce rent, the other solution for their equation is thus to increase the number of workers, to increase economic output and grow the economy. And that’s why there’s the Singapore Population White Paper 2013. As said, the whole problem arises because of the government’s rent-seeking behaviour and their underlying profit-making objectives.

Which means by the government’s economic activities, by their size of it and by the way they could monopolise it, it has created competition against the very companies that the government wants to grow and attract into Singapore. Now, this is very dangerous. If the government doesn’t have the interests of the people at heart, they can continue to have a workforce here because it’s not like people are so mobile that they can all decide to leave. But if the government becomes disinterested in taking care of businesses, whilst protecting their own business interests, businesses will feel marginalised and will leave. And it’s easier for businesses to leave, at least for the big ones, because there are many other financial and economic centres in the world.

This is not forgetting the other softer aspects of our society, which also creates impediments for businesses. Right now, it’s really mainly our legal and regulatory framework that’s keeping businesses here. If you look at our workers, at least for the lower paid workers, they feel that they are not paid an adequate renumeration for their job. This reduces their motivation and interest in innovating or in being productive. There is many research to support this. Also, for the middle income earners, they feel that they are also unequally treated because of the high income inequality. This also has adverse effects on their willingness to work productively. I’ve also mentioned because that our workforce aren’t the most innovative because our education system has created a workforce which as many has observed, is good at maintenance work, but not innovation. So you can see, our Singaporean workforce feels highly disempowered and unmotivated. Why then are businesses still willing to come? This is also why the government has such an open door policy towards having foreigners come to Singapore to work.

Increasing the number of foreign workers into Singapore is the government’s solutions to first, increasing our economic growth, and second, to compensate for a workforce which which is unmotivated and less innovative. But as said before, this is a very lazy way to resolve the problem, as as the Worker’s Party had said, a “half-hearted” attempt.

But you need to understand, it’s not because the government is unwilling to take time to seriously resolve the issue. They simply do not want to because this means that they need to reduce rent, and thus essentially means that they will earn less profits.

Positive Effects of Reducing Rental for Businesses

If you ask me, what the government is trying to do is that they are trying to milk rental as long as they can, and in fact, milk their other sources of income (from the people as well) for as long as they can. They want to do this so that they can accumulate as much wealth as they can, before they embark on their next step, which they know would be to have to restructure the economy, and then to to reduce rents. Perhaps the government intends to continue with their current course for another 3 years or maybe 5 or 8, or 20, but it looks like they’ve miscalculated the balance and thus they would need to revisit when they want to transit into the next stage of our economic development now, rather than later.

As explained, once the government reduces rental, this will give businesses some breathing space, which will allow them to decide if they want to invest in technology to enhance productivity. Also, as mentioned at the start of this article, the government should regulate as minimally as possible, so that businesses will not feel stifled by the regulations. So, the problem of low wages can theoretically be resolved without having to implement a minimum wage, if the government reduces rental for businesses. This will then free up some money, which the businesses might then use to increase the wages of workers, so that they will be more motivated to innovate as well, and to increase productivity. So, the effect of reducing rental, as one of the key pillars of restructuring our economy, can have very positive outcomes. It can create a more dynamic economy an workforce and will definitely be more sustainable than simply increasing the number of workers, who will feel stifled and uninspired to work in a crowded and lowly-paid environment.

Like I’ve discussed many times, can this be done? Can the government reduce rental? Can the government restructure the economy? Well, they can. It’s a question of whether they want to, whether their vested interests will allow them to, and whether they will be committed to do so, and not simply pay lip service to it.

Now, with the current decisions that the government is making, it will bring Singapore towards an undesirable direction. Already, companies are feeling the squeeze and the only thing that is really keeping them here is because Singapore is still the 4th largest financial centre in the world, so they can continue to interact with the other major businesses which are here. Also, our sound legal and regulatory environment is also what is keeping them here. Right now, our government is making use of our natural central location and institutionalised systems to keep businesses here. But there’s really nothing else to keep them here, because they can always move to the other top financial centres, say South Korea or the cities of Canada. And if they continue to want to stay in the region, they can also consider moving to Kuala Lumpur, which is moving up as a financial centre quickly.

*****

Back to the White Paper: Why Did the Government Release it?

Which is why it’s very worrying that the government doesn’t want to change its course. Do you know why the government had wanted to release the Population White Paper? They know that businesses are unhappy, and so, if they show businesses that there are plans to increase the number of workers, they can buy more time to continue to charge businesses high rental, for another 10, 20 years. This is why they had released the white paper. The government knows that it can push the endorsement of the paper through easily in parliament, and pacify companies. The government is willing to sacrifice the people, at the expense of companies, so that they can continue to grow their wealth.

What Does the White Paper Have to Do With Aim-AHTC and the By-Election?

What they didn’t count on was the people’s displeasure and uprising. It was a series of poor miscalculations. In early January, the government knew that they had to call for a by-election soon, because they needed to. They had already planned to release the white paper anyway, and then to release Budget 2013 anyway. This means that for the whole of February, they wouldn’t be able to hold a by-election. They most probably have other announcements for March and April, possibly on the Our National Conversation, which they are now conducting. What this means is that they have no other suitable time of holding a by-election, except at end of January.

But the two things that they didn’t count on was first, they called for a by-election right after the Aim-AHTC episode, where the distrust that Singaporeans have towards PAP was going down. Second, they didn’t realise that the anger that Singaporeans have towards their mismanagement of Singapore was so great that it would have such a negative effect on their losing the by-election. And then again, it is very bad timing when they decide to release the white paper, right after the euphoria came with Singaporeans’ vindication at the by-election. Singaporeans got really pissed off that the government had to ruin their celebrations.

And this why PM Lee said on Chinese New Year’s eve that the government will looking into how to manage the announcement of the white paper better in future. They had calculated many things wrongly and they had timed many things wrongly. The problem that has occurred is that the government had made their plans very early on, possibly last year for the announcements of the white paper and budget. As someone had commented, they needed to announce the white paper first, to secure its endorsement, so that they can then proceed with releasing the budget based on the endorsement. But as mentioned above, the Aim-AHTC incident was not part of the plan. Also, they most probably would have wanted to call for the by-election by end-December but the Aim-AHTC incident didn’t allow them to, so they had no choice but to wait it out. Finally, they simply didn’t have a choice by early January as the Aim-AHTC dragged on and because of their refusal to come clean, it looked like there was going to be no end to it, and which is why they had to announce that a review of the town councils would be down, to diffuse the situation, so that they could then immediately call for the by-election. So, it’s really a matter of timing. Their had compressed everything together, because of unexpected circumstances and because they had miscalculated. They simply pushed themselves into a corner and had no choice but to announce the review of the town councils, the by-election and the release of the white paper back-to-back. Most importantly, they had been very rigid. And the reason why they are rigid is because PAP has taken it for granted that they can determine the pace of things, but no longer.

Also, to be clear that even as PM Lee said that they would look into how to manage the announcement better, this isn’t the real problem. If they sincerely believes this is the problem, this shows that they continue to be deluded. The inherent problem is their profit-making fundamentals which has prevented them from finding the real solutions.

The other thing that worked against their favour is this – because they want to control mainstream media so much and because they want to sway public opinion so much, they became the victims of their own perpetration. They were deceived by their own media and the stories that they’ve created of themselves, and they sincerely believed that people weren’t as angry as they actually were, and they sincerely believed that they were going to win the by-election.

So, together with rigid planning, severely bad timing and miscalculations of on-ground sentiments, driven by their control and self-deception of mainstream media, the situation spiralled out of control, and out of their hands, back into the hands of the people. Yay!

What’s the Solution?

Actually, this whole episode which began all the way from late last year shows that PAP needs to open up. They need to, because it’s for their own good as well. As much as they want political survival, the situation that they’ve created is also what has messed up for them. They simply do not know how to handle their control anymore. So, they need to open up so that they can have a more accurate understanding of Singaporeans, and be able to read them properly, and anticipate their reactions better. This will then mean that they would be better able to predict responses to the release of white papers, and also gain more support, if need be.

The current problems are self-inflicted and can be resolved, all if PAP is willing to be truly honest, non-corrupt and open. A quick note that as much as PAP believes that it’s non-corrupt, the very structures that they’ve created and tie themselves to means that they are inadvertently allowing their own people to benefit, and whether this is intended or not, has created unfair practices.

Finally, back to the issue of their rent-seeking behaviour, PAP simply has to reduce their want for wealth generation and to remember the basic principles of governance – to first protect the people and take care of their welfare. Once they remember that, they will know to do the right thing.

But if they don’t, well, there’s the next general election. And we will then do the right thing for them.

Please Don’t Fall For PAP’s Gimmick: We Are Not Xenophobic

Singaporeans, please don’t fall for it.

I have said it again, and I will say it again. This Singaporean vs foreigner sentiment is a gimmick, it’s a ploy.

Please, I don’t know how many times I need to say this, but we need to remember who we are directing our unhappiness to. It is not to the foreigners.

Singaporeans, the reason why there will be too many people on this small island of Singapore is because of a government who has implemented bad policies which have not been properly thought out by them. The reason why this country is too crowded is because this government has made population projections, which they couldn’t adhere to, and where the actual numbers ran out of proportion, and where because they didn’t plan properly, there simply isn’t enough infrastructure and diffusion of spaces to keep up with the speed of population growth. This government has bad planning, bad foresight and bad policies – now, let’s get this right, please.

Who is to blame for the current problem? If there are good policies that are enacted, what do you think will happen to Singapore? We will have a more moderate flow of people coming in and going out of Singapore. The growth of the population will be more balanced and measured. And we will not be in a state of unhappiness. So, what is the problem? The government’s policies of managing the flow is flawed and not thought out carefully.

Now, I speak in thorough disdain and displeasure of this government because:

  1. The government’s responsibility is to maintain and upkeep the social fabric of Singapore. As a citizen, it is our right to ask – how dare PAP bring in people without any consideration of the well-being of all the people that will reside on this island? How dare PAP not come out now and firmly put to rest the discussion about Singaporeans vs foreigners, by apologising for their bad policies. PAP needs to amend this policy, and not simply retain the policies and put unnatural curbs on the number of people coming into Singapore, without any other adjustments to business costs or wages. This has thus not only resulted in a twin problem socially, but also among businesses, who are thus stifled.
  2. Why are foreigners getting the flak in the discourse of Singaporeans vs foreigners? PAP lured the foreigners to come into Singapore, and then left them in Singapore to fend for the criticisms that they are facing, in large part because PAP could not plan their policies well and resulted in over-crowding. And why are the foreigners left to pick up the pieces while PAP continues to sit on their high horse, planning for more people to come in, which will allow for more foreigners to be verbally abuse, and possibly in other ways? They didn’t ask to be abused. PAP invited them into Singapore, and if you have the cheek to ask them in, then you jolly have some basic decency to take care of them. Otherwise, you manage your flow better.
  3. Why does this government allow Singaporeans to lose our moral character because of bad policies that you cannot even plan properly? Now, this government allows the conversations of the people to degenerate into bad mouthing one another, and this government doesn’t even come out and apologise for the bad policies that they had implemented, which has resulted in Singaporeans feeling so stressed that they have allowed themselves to speak badly of another.

Where is the human decency and humanity of this government?

Singaporeans, please, if our government is unable to maintain their respectability and their standards, at least we, as a people, should have a decency to speak up and stand up for what is right. The right thing to do is not to get angry at the foreigners, or to get angry at one another. The right thing to do is to refocus our attention and direct it at the perpetrator – this ineffective government.

Accusation Against Mr Low Thia Kiang on ‘Inciting Xenophobia’

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Picture credit: Martyn See’s Facebook

Today, The Straits Times reported on how Mr Li Yeming, vice-chairman of the Singapore Federation of Chinese Clan Associations, had made a charge on Worker’s Party chief Low Thia Khiang that he was “inciting xenophobia”. Li “accused Mr Low and the WP of fanning anti-foreigner and anti-immigrant sentiments during the White Paper debate.”

Now, let me be clear – who was it who started talking about the “Singaporean core”? Who was it who started talking about increasing the population of Singapore to 6.9 million, such that there will be over-crowding in Singapore? Who was it who wanted to grow Singapore at all costs, while pretending to want to keep a “Singaporean core” in 2030, which by 2040, will no longer be the “core”? It was not Mr Low Thia Khiang.

Mr Low Thia Kiang had to speak up in parliament to protect the people on this island from over-crowding. And thus he suggested slowing down the pace of growth in the first decade, and then increasing the pace of growth at a moderate rate in the subsequent decade, when the infrastructure has been increased after the first decade. Mr Low wanted to do what was right to protect Singaporeans, foreigners and anyone who will reside on this island.

Who was it who didn’t bat an eyelid as to how bad the situation might be in Singapore but then, only because of the pressure put on them by Singaporeans, passed a separate motion to ask Singaporeans not to focus on the white paper, and started discussing about how perhaps, we need to look into building up the infrastructure first, before we talk about the population projection?

It is Mr Li Yeming who has gotten his facts terribly wrong. Perhaps Mr Li might not have known better, but why would he? Mr Li is from the Singapore Federation of Chinese Clan Associations. Have you taken a look at their website? On their website, PM Lee Hsien Loong is the patron of the Federation of the 14th session of the Governing Council.

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The federation is also very proud to display pictures of our PAP politicians, such as DPM Teo Chee Hean, Vivian Balakrishnan and President Tony Tan.

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Now, where is PM Lee, DPM Teo, Mr Balakrishnan and Mr Tan when Mr Li from the Singapore Federation of Chinese Clan Associations had decided to send this letter of accusation to Mr Low Thia Kiang?

As Mr Low had put it, “In the past, those who held different political views from the Government would often be charged for dividing society, inciting the people or different races, or being against national interest.”

Now, I ask of my fellow Singaporeans, who is it who is holding different political views and who is dividing our society now? Who is the one who is inciting the people of different nationalities? Are we Singaporeans protesting against PAP’s population and economic policies because we are “against national interest”? Clearly, PAP is the one who is against national interest by pushing through policies which harm the large proportion of the people living on this island.

As I have said before, this government is not interested in protecting the rights of the people. This government is interested in seeing the people on this island degenerate into bad mouthing and mudslinging. The more you do it, the more it takes the attention away from them. And so, now, Mr Li Yeming from the Singapore Federation of Chinese Clan Associations has also been thrown into the fray to add to the divide and rifts that is already tearing Singapore apart.

May I remind you that for many associations and clans in Singapore, they have ties with this government. May I remind you that The Straits Times is also a mouthpiece of this government, without nary a sense of pride or integrity. And now, we have seen it for ourselves how this clan and this newspaper has sold their morality and soul to the government by reporting on a fellow Singaporean who, they claim, is inciting xenophobia, when Mr Low isn’t even the one to first speak of the “Singaporean core” or the 6.9 million population. Mr Low is not the one inciting xenophobia. Rather, the accuser is.

Right now, Mr Low and the Worker’s Party hold the high moral ground among the people in Singapore. After PAP’s disastrous showing at the Punggol East by-election and their unsuccessful attempt to sway the people to buy into their population white paper, and with the protest against the white paper over the weekend well-attended by a few thousand people in Singapore, PAP is starting to feel anxious and nervous once again. What better way than to find ways to compromise on Mr Low’s integrity?

Singapore for Singaporeans: Xenophobic?

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At the protest over the weekend, an individual had held up a signboard with the words, “Singapore for Singaporeans”. There have been many discussions ongoing about how this individual might also be displaying xenophobic sentiments.

Singaporeans, I will be wary to jump into conclusions. You have to understand that at the current state of mind that many people in Singapore are in, there is a careful cautiousness that pervades the people, because of the current sensitivity of how the issue of Singaporeans and non-Singaporeans is being discussed. If this signboard was held even 10 or 15 years ago, would it have thrown up such divisive sentiments?

Now, I have spoken to this individual and I know where he is coming from. I myself have written in one of my articles about how we need to build a Singaporean Singapore. Why do we say that? In light of the current context, many people will be fearful of fanning xenophobic sentiments, and thus the words we use or the things we say can be held accountable to doing that. Rightfully so, this means that we need to be even more cautious in the way we express ourselves. As a responsible and thoughtful society, we should ensure that we respect the rights of others. In this context, the choice of word use to describe a “Singaporean Singapore” might not be the most enlightened.

But, please allow me to explain. I share this individual’s understanding of the matter because when we talk about a “Singaporean Singapore”, this is talked about, in comparison with a “PAP’s Singapore”. I do not want a Singapore where PAP makes all the decisions and where this Singapore is sculpted by the one-side or 80-sided PAP politicians. I want a Singapore where all Singaporeans have a voice in making Singapore the Singapore that we want to live in and where we can call home. When we talk about a Singaporean Singapore, we are talking about all citizens who have a right to vote, who get to have a stake and a say in this country, and who get to make decisions for ourselves, and where we do not want to have our rights taken away by the 80 PAP politicians, who believe that we should be the ones dictating how our lives should be, and by the PAP. This is the context that this is talked about, and as I understand, how the individual feels.

There are many ways to look at a situation, and the words that have been used, “Singaporean Singapore”, are used in the context of our electoral and citizenry rights. Does that mean as a Singaporean who gets to decide the fates and fortunes of our country, that we get to slight others who are thus not Singaporean? If we were to think so, then I would be terribly embarrassed. True, in light of the ongoing discussion, the choice of “Singaporean Singapore” might be poor word choice which I would most likely not use in my subsequent articles, because I do not want what I say to be misconstrued, because of the many interpretations that can occur.

PAP Has Lost Its Moral Authority

But let’s be clear. I think at this point, many of us have an amazing awareness of how we need to be careful in our thoughts and attitudes, as I have, and as this individual in question has as well.

But the positive outcome of this episode is that in this discussion and in a discussion which the protest at Hong Lim Park on Saturday was able to refocus onto, everyone on this island has to be cognizant that we shouldn’t be directing our unhappiness at anyone individual, be it a Singaporean or foreigner, or people of any other identities or characteristics.

It is clear that the current situation that we face in Singapore now is due to bad policies and a government which refuses to apologise for the bad policies and a government which continues to fan nationalistic sentiments and divisions. This government had started the use of the idea of the “Singaporean core”. This government has not stepped out to apologise for the xenophobic sentiments that they have caused by the usage of this terminology. And this government has not stepped out to recognize the upset and divisions that they have caused to a large population of Singaporeans, but continue to slight the people as being significant. This government doesn’t want to take the people seriously, because it continues to think that it knows what right and will continue to play divisive politics where it can. This is a highly irresponsible and reprehensible government which should be ashamed of itself and its own doing, and soon-to-be undoing.

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Mr Lee Kuan Yew had said in 2008 that he believed that the optimum size of the population in Singapore should be 5.5 million, so that we can “preserve the open space and have a sense of comfort”. Perhaps our current ministers have so big a salary and a house that their open spaces are so well-preserved in their bungalows that they believe that they have achieved the sense of comfort that they need, that other Singaporeans can be thrown into small living spaces of 60 or 90 square metres, without needing a sense of comfort.

As Mr Low had said, “I hope to see a society where civilized debate can create a consensus and cohesiveness, and a Singapore where people feel a sense of belonging to their nation.” Mr Goh Chok Tong had slighted the speeches by the speakers at the protest as “rhetoric” that this “rhetoric” is “too political, too one-sided, appealing to issues only and not shedding light on important issues.”

I think we can see for ourselves who the leader of this country truly is.

Reflections On The Protest Against The Population White Paper: Part 3

A reader had posted a comment in the Part 1 of this article, sharing that the Singaporeans need to take responsibility for our xenophobic attitudes as well. I agree and I have more to add as well. This was my response to her:

If I may add, as to why Singaporeans do not seem to exhibit accepting attitudes towards others, you are right and this isn’t just reflected in our attitudes towards foreigners, but also on our attitudes to other races and other populations as well.

There are two attributions to this – first – on the people themselves, and this is why the people need to be more aware and need to learn to look within and deeply to reflect on themselves and their own attitudes and second, this can be attributed to the government’s policies.

Why do I say this? The government’s policies of segregating the races, for one, has inevitable created a situation where the different races have as well a less understanding of one another. Whereas in our parent’s and grandparent’s time where they had close kinship with their fellow neighbours of all races, is this as prevalent in Singapore now?

Also, because discourse on racial and cultural issues are strongly frowned upon and the Singaporean society is not encouraged to reflect and think about social issues, because of laws in place which causes people to inhibit social and political thinking, it has bred a people whose ability to think critically and deeply is severely stunted.

So, when people judge another, do they step back and take the time to think about and understand why they judge another, and in doing so, learn not to do so? They don’t. In our culture where we’ve learnt to be look at things on the surface, we’ve inevitably created a people who judge because they think in reactionary ways and do not explore their reactions deeply.

Do I fault them? It has to be an equal share where both the government and the people play a part. But I would attribute more missteps to the government’s policies. You see, I know of some people who are able to learn to be aware, and it requires a mind that is willing to challenge the system and think beyond the system, to be able to then learn to identify with the fellow human person and to learn to understand what another person is going through, so that we can then learn to understand and accept them.

With government policies which causes undue stress among the people, where day in, day out, they have to think about their own survival, people are unlikely to spend time empathising with another. Not only that, nearly 50 years of controlled education and political landscape has created a people who have been severely limited in their minds and imaginations to be able to think otherwise. Yes, we might have a well-educated population, but one which is educated in hard sciences, where our ability to understand the human psyche and society has been severely compromised.

Do I fault the people for not being able to appreciate and accept differences? Yes, because we should try to break out of the mould and learn to think deeply about our own attitudes and learn to show acceptance to others. But, I would place most of the attribution on the government for refusing to overhaul or reform a system which has created people who are unthinking and obedient, and because of this, has created people who have become so sorely self-centred and self-protectionist. This government has to allow for people’s rights and autonomy to be respected if we are to move the Singaporean society into a first world society. We have a first world economy but hardly a first world government or society.

Do I fault our people for behaving like cultured barbarians when their government, which isn’t too far off, has set the tone and standards which they are made to abide by?